Top NBA Pick: Over 246.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
It’s MLK Day, meaning many people have off from work and will be sitting home, watching some sports throughout the day.
I’ve added three best bets for the later portion of the NBA slate. Which bets will you tail at our main offshore sportsbooks?
Chicago Bulls vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Monday, January 15, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse
The Chicago Bulls have won four of their last five games and are now just three games away from being back at .500.
However, the Bulls essentially earned two overtime wins and defeated teams like the Hornets twice and Spurs once. That doesn’t get anyone too excited.
The Bulls already lost to the Cavaliers earlier this season, 109-95.
Chicago’s offense should struggle in tonight’s matchup. The Bulls have added just 113.9 points per 100 possessions and have shot an effective field goal percentage of 52.9%. Those numbers rank in the bottom ten in offense.
Meanwhile, the Cavaliers have held teams to 112.9 points per 100 possessions and a 53.3% effective field goal percentage. Those numbers rank in the top ten defensively.
The Bulls should do a good job at protecting the basketball, but the shot selection and quality of looks likely won’t be high.
On the other hand, the Cleveland offense isn’t spectacular, either. The Cavaliers have only scored 114.6 points per 100 possessions and have shot a 54.5% effective field goal percentage. However, the Cavaliers should be more active on the offensive glass, which will result in second-chance points.
Not only have the Cavaliers added 28.7% of offensive rebounds, but the Bulls have allowed 28.5% of offensive rebounds on defense.
That’ll be the difference. Take the Cavaliers at -3.5.
NBA Pick: Cavaliers -3.5 (-110) at BetOnline
Boston Celtics vs. Toronto Raptors
Monday, January 15, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena
The Celtics have played the Raptors three times this season. In all three games, the result has been the same.
The Celtics are 3-0 against the Raptors.
However, the Celtics have two wins by just one possession and one blowout win at home. The Raptors have played Boston well over the last couple of games.
In reality, the Celtics are just too strong offensively for the Raptors. Boston has added 122.2 points per 100 possessions with an effective field goal percentage of 57.6%. The Celtics are also good at limiting turnovers but probably won’t get to the foul line at a high rate against Toronto.
Limiting foul shots is the only area where the Raptors have had success defensively this season.
Meanwhile, the Celtics have held teams to 112.2 points per 100 possessions. They’re not going to earn turnovers at a high rate for this matchup, but they’re dominant on the defensive glass, limit foul shots, and have held teams to a 52.2% effective field goal percentage.
Toronto isn’t aggressive enough to get to the foul line at a high rate. While the Raptors will keep turnovers down, the quality of looks won’t nearly be as good as Boston’s.
Let’s take the Celtics at -7.5 on the road.
NBA Pick: Celtics -7.5 (-110) at BetOnline
Indiana Pacers vs. Utah Jazz
Monday, January 15, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Delta Center
The Pacers dominated the Jazz earlier this season in November, 134-118. However, the Jazz are now 7.5-point favorites at home in this one.
That’s because Tyrese Haliburton of the Pacers is injured and won’t play in this game. The Pacers are still the best offense in the NBA. They’ve added 122.7 points per 100 possessions with an effective field goal percentage of 59%.
While the absence of Haliburton will hurt, the Pacers have still added at least 109 points in four straight games.
The Jazz won’t earn a high rate of turnovers but should at least limit the Pacers on the offensive glass and from the foul line. Still, the Pacers will get solid looks from the floor, with the Jazz allowing a 55.8% effective field goal percentage.
On the other hand, the Jazz turn the ball over 15.9% of the time and are super careless with the ball. The only quality that the Jazz have on offense is their ability to earn second chances to get to the foul line.
Utah has added 32.4% of offensive rebounds, while the Pacers have given up 30.3% of offensive rebounds. On top of that, the Pacers have allowed the second-worst free-throw rate on defense.
The Jazz can stick around with the Pacers with second chances at freebies.
Let’s take the Over 246.5 in this one.
NBA Pick: Over 246.5 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
