Top NBA Pick: Warriors -10.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We’ve got another day of the NBA In-Season Tournament. We’re still in the group stage, with plenty of intriguing matchups on the slate. Going through the NBA odds at the top offshore sportsbooks, we have selected the three best bets to consider for this Black Friday.
Miami Heat vs. New York Knicks
Friday, November 24, 2023 – 07:30 PM ET at Madison Square Garden
Duel of Strengths and Weaknesses
The New York Knicks are known for their defense. The Knicks have held teams to 110.8 points per 100 possessions, which is 7th in the NBA. They’ve also held teams to 20.9% of offensive rebounds, which is the best defensive rate in the league.
The Knicks have earned an above-average amount of turnovers and have limited teams to a bottom-ten rate at the foul line.
The Heat aren’t aggressive on the offensive glass, earning under 25% of offensive rebounds. They’re also shooting an average rate with an effective field goal percentage of 54.6.
At this time, Bam Adebayo and Duncan Robinson are game-time decisions. Tyler Herro is working his way back, but he’s not ready to play basketball after his ankle injury a few weeks ago.
Meanwhile, the Knicks have shot an effective field goal percentage of 51.4%. They’re just electric on the offensive glass, earning 34.5% of offensive rebounds. That’s why the Knicks still own a winning record. They’re not shooting the ball well, but the second chances have helped them.
The Pick
New York won’t see the foul line often against the Heat and will need to be careful with the Heat, knowing Miami has earned nearly 17% of turnovers. But if the Knicks can limit the turnovers like they’ve done this season and win the offensive glass, I like them to escape with a cover and win against Miami.
Let’s back the Knicks at -5.5.
NBA Pick: Knicks -5.5 (-110) at BetOnline
Denver Nuggets vs. Houston Rockets
Friday, November 24, 2023 – 08:00 PM ET at Toyota Center
Home Sweet Home
The Houston Rockets are 7-1 at home but 0-5 on the road. Lucky for the Rockets, they’ll be home against the Nuggets tonight.
Not only will the Rockets be home, but Houston doesn’t have to worry about facing Jamal Murray, who is out due to a hamstring injury.
The Rockets currently have a top-three defense, holding opponents to 107.6 points per 100 possessions. Teams have struggled to earn second chances and have shot just a 51.2% effective field goal percentage.
While Houston sends teams to the foul line at a very high rate, the Nuggets are the worst team at getting to the foul line this season.
Meanwhile, the Rockets will limit turnovers on offense. Like the Nuggets, they won’t get great looks or dominate the offensive glass, either.
The Pick
The Rockets defeated the Nuggets 107-104 last time out on November 12. I think we will see a low-scoring game just like that one.
I’ll grab the Under 216.5.
NBA Pick: Under 216.5 (-110) at BetOnline
San Antonio Spurs vs. Golden State Warriors
Friday, November 24, 2023 – 10:00 PM ET at Chase Center
Defensive Woes and Offensive Challenges
This will be the first of four matchups between the Spurs and Warriors.
At this time, the Spurs can’t escape their own way. San Antonio continues to lose, with a 3-12 record. The team has allowed at least 120 points in four of their last five games and is simply one of the worst teams in the NBA.
The offense has scored just 107.8 points per 100 possessions. Meanwhile, the Spurs have shot an effective field goal percentage of only 52.7%. San Antonio is also below-average with turnovers, offensive rebounding, and free throw rate.
The Warriors foul a lot. Therefore, we might see the Spurs get to the foul line more consistently than usual. However, the offense won’t get high-quality looks or earn a ton of offensive rebounds for second chances.
On the other hand, the Spurs are just as bad defensively. San Antonio is better on the defensive glass. However, the Warriors have earned 30.9% of offensive rebounds. The Warriors will still win more second chances on the offensive glass.
The Pick
However, the Warriors aren’t getting the best of looks, shooting a 52.9% effective field goal percentage. They’ll just be better on the boards and get to the foul line more frequently.
Therefore, I’ll back the Warriors at -10.5 at home. The Spurs just keep getting blown out.
NBA Pick: Warriors -10.5 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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