Top NBA Pick: Lakers -1.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
With 12 games on the NBA slate tonight, here are three best bets to consider for tonight’s matchups at our top-rated online sportsbooks.
Phoenix Suns vs. Miami Heat
Monday, January 29, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at Kaseya Center
The Miami Heat haven’t won in a long time. They even added Terry Rozier in a trade with the Hornets to get better. But that hasn’t worked either.
The Heat are still a solid defensive team, holding opponents to 115.8 points per 100 possessions. They’re an above-average group at forcing turnovers while also limiting rebounds and foul shots. Meanwhile, the Suns turn the ball over 14.9% of the time.
However, Miami won’t force the Suns into tough shots. The Suns have an effective field goal percentage of 56.6%, and the Heat have a defensive effective field goal percentage of 56.2%.
After Devin Booker scored 44 points last night, the Suns clearly have many weapons on offense, with Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal also in the starting lineup.
Conversely, the Heat don’t have much offensive star power. They’ve scored 113.8 points per 100 possessions and have added only 25.5% of offensive rebounds.
The only area where the Heat have excelled is getting to the foul line. However, the Suns have allowed only a 19 free throw rate, which is 7th best in the NBA on the defensive end.
It’s unclear if Jusuf Nurkic will play in this game. He didn’t play yesterday due to an injury to his thumb. On a back-to-back, it’ll even be tougher for the Suns, but the Suns totally match up better than the Heat right now.
I’ll take Phoenix at +3.5. The Heat have been awful lately.
NBA Pick: Suns +3.5 (-110) at BetOnline
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Houston Rockets
Monday, January 29, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Toyota Center
The Lakers could fall to .500 with a road loss to the Rockets tonight.
The Lakers aren’t the most consistent offense this season, scoring 115.6 points per 100 possessions.
They’ll get to the foul line at a high rate against the Rockets but won’t dominate the offensive glass for second chances. The Rockets have allowed 26.8% of offensive rebounds, while the Lakers have added only 23.5% of offensive rebounds this season.
While the Lakers get good looks, shooting an effective field goal percentage of 56.1%, the Rockets have limited teams to a 52.9% effective field goal percentage, which is the top five in the NBA.
Meanwhile, the Rockets aren’t as good offensively, scoring 114.7 points per 100 possessions.
Houston won’t get to the foul line like the Lakers. They will limit turnovers better. But Houston still won’t see a ton of second chances either, with the Lakers limiting teams to 26.2% of offensive rebounds.
The Rockets currently shoot a 53.3% effective field goal percentage, which is 25th in the NBA. That won’t cut it against the Lakers.
Anthony Davis and LeBron James are questionable for tonight’s game. As long as they play, the Lakers at -1.5 are the play.
NBA Pick: Lakers -1.5 (-110) at BetOnline
Washington Wizards vs. San Antonio Spurs
Monday, January 29, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Frost Bank Center
The Spurs and Wizards will play their second and final regular season matchup tonight.
The Spurs knocked off the Wizards a little over a week ago, 131-127, in an exciting matchup between two teams with low win totals.
Washington is coming off a win against Detroit, scoring 118 points in the win. However, the offense is typically bad. The Wizards have scored just 112.1 points per 100 possessions, with the lowest offensive rebounding rate in the NBA at 22%. Washington has also added a very low free throw rate but should at least limit turnovers and have a solid, effective field goal percentage against the Spurs.
San Antonio has allowed 119.4 points per 100 possessions. The Spurs are good at limiting foul shots but have also allowed a 56.7% effective field goal percentage.
Look for the Wizards to get good shots. However, they won’t get second chances or many free throw attempts.
On the other hand, the Spurs are worse offensively, scoring 111 points per 100 possessions. San Antonio shoots a low effective field goal percentage and also rarely gets to the foul line. However, the Spurs will likely see more second chances, going up against a Washington defense that has allowed 32.1% of offensive rebounds this season.
So while the Spurs will get more second chances and ultimately more shot attempts, the Wizards will still shoot a higher percentage from the floor and limit turnovers better.
Both offenses should consistently put up points against these horrible defenses. Let’s back the Over 240.5.
These teams just combined for nearly 260 points in their last game.
NBA Pick: Over 240.5 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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