NBA Pick: Cavaliers -3.5 (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NBA odds for Game 7 between the Magic and Cavaliers. For your best bets, I will recommend wagering on the home team.
Orlando Magic vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Sunday, May 05, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse
Free Throw Shooting
Orlando won Game 6 but did so in ways that will not repeat themselves.
The Magic won only by seven despite making 17 more free throws. This free-throw disparity is ridiculous. It was also unfair, as the Cavaliers attacked a lot inside and were not rightly rewarded for their aggressiveness. A lot of close contact calls did not go their way.
One must expect the foul game to shift in Cleveland’s favor at home, especially given its aggressive style of play.
Jalen Suggs and Company
Something else that won’t sustain itself for Orlando is the success of Jalen Suggs. He helped the Magic win Game 6, but that game took place in Orlando, whereas Game 7 is in Cleveland.
In three games in Orlando, Suggs shot 81.1 percent, 57.1 percent and 43.8 percent from the floor, respectively. Conversely, in Cleveland, he has shot 25 percent, 40 percent off only five attempts and 35.7 percent. His non-existence in Cleveland will be decisive.
Paolo Banchero’s masterclass performance bailed out Orlando, from an ATS perspective, in Game 5, but the Cavaliers, partly due to a different starting lineup, were more prepared for him in Game 6.
Evan Mobley
Cleveland hung within seven points of Orlando in Game 6 despite getting almost nothing from Evan Mobley.
Jarrett Allen’s absence is likely hurting Mobley, who has to occupy the five without him. It would help if Allen plays, but Mobley has been so good in Cleveland that Allen’s absence won’t matter – Gary Harris for Orlando is anyhow also injured.
Three-Point Shooting
Moreover, the three-point shooting will tip in Cleveland’s favor when the game moves to Cleveland.
Whereas Orlando has been awful in Cleveland and overall from behind the arc, the Cavs experience a significant statistical uptick – almost three percentage points on the season – in three-point shooting percentage when they move home.
Coaching
In Game 5 in Cleveland, Cleveland’s coaching staff was much more creative. The in-game adjustments were strong and the offense was at its best. Expect a similar effort in Game 7 after what was a lackluster coaching effort in Game 6 in Orlando.
Cleveland’s gameplan was horribly predictable: Donovan Mitchell drove inside again and again. While his determination to drive inside underscores an important point of vulnerability in Orlando’s defense, the Magic became too well prepared for it, allowing them to win the fourth quarter and consequently the game.
Role players often get a big boost at home, so expect Mitchell’s supporting cast to step up. Cleveland will find a way to get them more involved offensively, which is something that it could and should have done a better job of doing in Game 6.
Just giving the ball more to Darius Garland, who has turned it on these last two games, for four quarters will do wonders.
Takeaway
Cleveland had a five-point lead heading into the fourth quarter in Game 6.
At home, the Cavaliers will cover the spread thanks to better three-point shooting, a stronger performance from Mobley along with a weaker one from Suggs, more free throws, more balanced offensive play and their characteristically solid defense at home against an inefficient Magic offense.
All of these factors will amount to a powerful shift in the scoreline relative to Game 6.
NBA Pick: Cavaliers -3.5 (-105) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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