Heat vs. Pacers April 7 NBA Best Bet: Miami Will Shoot Comfortably in Indiana

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Terry Rozier #2 of the Miami Heat shoots over Nicolas Batum #40 of the Philadelphia 76ers during the fourth quarter at the Wells Fargo Center on March 18, 2024. Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images/AFP

Oddsmakers have released their NBA odds for today and one matchup in particular caught my eye.

Let’s go ahead and break down the Heat vs. Pacers and why you should consider investing in Miami on the moneyline at the top-rated sportsbooks.

NBA Best Bet: Heat ML (+115) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)

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Miami Heat vs. Indiana Pacers

Sunday, April 07, 2024 – 05:00 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse

Indiana’s Offense

Since the loss of sharpshooter Buddy Hield, Indiana’s offense has become oriented toward scoring at the basket. The lack of sharpshooting talent only partially explains this recent propensity of the Pacers’ offense.

Another part of the explanation is that guys like Pascal Siakam, Tyrese Haliburton (a key scorer who might miss today’s game due to his back) and TJ McConnell are determined to drive to the basket.

Thanks to these and other players, Indiana attempts the most field goals per game within five feet of the rim.

Miami’s Defense

Miami’s determination to protect the basket makes it match up well against the Pacers’ offense. The Heat have been known for their switch-heavy ball-screen coverage plan, but not so much since other offenses have found ways to exploit it.

Instead, the Heat are rather inclined to employ drop coverage.

This ball-screen tactic makes it easier to protect the basket by positioning the defender guarding the screener closer to the basket.

The Heat’s compact defending helps explain why it allows the second-fewest field goals made per game within five feet of the basket.

Miami’s Scoring Outlook

Their offense often resembles waves of a military invasion. For example, a Heat player will drive, kick the ball back to a teammate behind him and so on.

The Heat love pulling up for jumpers inside the arc. Statistically speaking, they are especially inclined to attack the space five to nine feet from the basket.

NBA Best Bet

As measured by field goal percentage, Indiana is the second-worst team defending 5 to 9 feet from the basket. They are also the worst team defending 10 to 14 feet from the hoop.

It’s too easy to spread the Pacers out. Especially because Indiana primarily wants to prevent three-pointers – to attack them inside the arc. 

Miami will be comfortable on offense, whereas Indiana won’t.

NBA Best Bet: Heat ML (+115) at Bookmaker

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Heat ML (+115)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.