Giants vs. Steelers Monday Night Football Pick: Let Russ Cook?

What would you do for a Klondike bar? There was a time when you could only get these bad boys at a handful of locations in Pittsburgh, or maybe around Youngstown, Ohio if you were lucky. And you had to get there early before they ran out.

You can already see where this is going. The Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2 SU and ATS) opened as 4-point home faves for this week’s edition of Monday Night Football, where they’ll face the New York Giants (2-5 SU, 2-4-1 ATS); now they’re -6.5 as we go to press, with some online sportsbooks bumping Pittsburgh up to -7 on their Week 8 NFL odds board.

No sweat. As long as you can get the Steelers at less than the full seven points, they still have enough betting value for your football picks, albeit for a smaller bet size than they would warrant at -4. That -105 vigorish at BetOnline seals the deal.

Can Russ Still Cook?

At least in small batches. Russell Wilson made his Steelers debut last week against the New York Jets (-2.5 away), and after a slow first half, Wilson brought out the high-end kitchenware. The former Super Bowl winner with Seattle threw a pair of touchdown passes and rushed for a third, out-dueling Aaron Rodgers for a 37-15 victory. Just like old times.

Everyone said pretty much the same thing afterward: The Steelers’ offense looked more “balanced” under Wilson than it did under Justin Fields – who saw zero snaps last week at any position. Head coach Mike Tomlin might be waiting for Wilson to get more comfortable with the offense before whipping out the Justin Fields package (f’nar f’nar).

In the meantime, reports of Wilson being “washed out” may indeed be a bit premature. He finished Sunday’s game at plus-0.32 EPA (Expected Points above Average) per dropback, which would put Wilson third overall this season, just slightly ahead of Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson, the +200 favorite on the MVP odds board at Bovada.

No, we don’t expect Wilson to keep matching Jackson as this sample size grows larger. But even if he matches Fields (plus-0.10 EPA, No. 15 overall), the Steelers will be in good shape going forward.

Is This the End for Brian Daboll?

It’s hard to believe Daboll is on the hot seat after coaching the G-Men into the playoffs in 2022, but here we are. Daboll appears to be near the end of his rope when it comes to QB Daniel Jones; Daboll replaced Jones with Drew Lock during the fourth quarter of last week’s 28-3 loss to Philadelphia (-3 away), although Daboll insists Jones is still No. 1 for Big Blue.

It’s not Daboll’s fault that the Giants spent all that money on Jones (minus-0.04 EPA) after making that playoff run: $160 million over four years, about half of that guaranteed. The sunk cost fallacy is a thing, but thanks to the salary cap, it’s unlikely New York will give Jones the boot until this offseason – which means Daboll’s head is on the chopping block if they want to make immediate changes.

The Pick

We haven’t even gotten into New York’s offensive line, which just lost LT Andrew Thomas (foot) for the rest of the season. Nobody said life was fair; this matchup has Pittsburgh on the ascendancy, and New York one step away from ending the Daboll-Jones Era. The difference between -4 and -6.5 can’t be ignored, but at least we’re not crossing any magic numbers, so size your bets accordingly, and may the prolate spheroid be with you this Monday.

NFL Pick: Steelers -6.5 (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

Steelers -6.5 (-105)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.