As we review the NCAAF odds, we find three games on the Friday night schedule, but the only one that has caught our eye is the CFP showdown between the Crimson Tide of Alabama and the Sooners of Oklahoma, which will kick off at 8:00 PM ET on ABC and ESPN.
Our Friday night football bets consist of one side oozing with value and a player prop that will cash at the virtual betting windows. This is a highly anticipated rematch between these SEC powerhouses.
Alabama enters with a 10-3 mark, while Oklahoma boasts a 10-2 record.
Our college football bets on Friday night respectfully disagree with the AI predictions made by BMR’s proprietary algorithm, which shows Oklahoma winning and covering the number against their opponents from Alabama.
Best Bets for Alabama vs. Oklahoma
After researching tonight’s NCAAF odds, we see that Alabama has been installed as a slight favorite over Oklahoma, despite losing their previous regular-season contest by two points.
We should also note that Bama was not at their level best in the SEC Championship game, where they dropped a 28-7 decision to Georgia.
The Sooners won their last four games and covered in all but the last one when they struggled to get by SEC rival LSU, 17-13, as 12-point home chalk. Despite tossing three interceptions, the Sooners’ quarterback John Mateer threw for 318 yards and two touchdowns. But it was the Oklahoma defense that stole the show by limiting LSU to 113 yards through the air and just 83 yards rushing.
Alabama will pose a much sterner test for the Sooners’ defense, while Oklahoma will be tasked with limiting interceptions and turnovers against an opportunistic Tide defense.
Friday CFP Bowl Odds (Oklahoma +1)
The NCAAF odds on this College Football Playoff meeting between No. 8 Oklahoma and No. 9 Alabama in the the first round of NCAAF playoffs show that there has been a bit of a lean on the home underdog.
Alabama opened as 1 ½ point underdogs, but we see that number has drifted down just a click to Alabama -1 as of this writing at all of the best online sportsbooks.
The half-point won’t mean anything to those backing the Tide, as we are expecting a win a bit more substantial than a one-point decision; however, if it does come down to a one-point game, it’s better to push than fail to cover by an excruciating hook.
Friday CFP Bowl Picks (Alabama -1)
BMR’s algorithm model predicts a 23-21 Oklahoma victory, but I believe the Tide will atone for their loss to the Sooners on November 15th in Tuscaloosa. Alabama had three turnovers in that game, and I don’t see them being as reckless this time around.
We should also note that in their previous meeting, Bama had nearly double the total yardage (406 vs. 212) of Oklahoma, and Tide quarterback Ty Simpson passed for 326 yards, versus Oklahoma QB John Mateer, who managed only 138 passing yards.
Neither rushing attack did much, with Oklahoma gaining 74 yards on the ground compared to Alabama, which chewed up just 80 rushing yards with sophomore tailback Daniel Hill breaking the plane of the end zone twice.
This game will be decided on defense, as neither Alabama nor Oklahoma is an offensive juggernaut this season. However, when we compare the Sooners’ offense with the Alabama defense, we see the following:
- Oklahoma total yards (353.7 – 84th) vs. Bama total yards allowed (282.3 – 9th)
- Oklahoma rushing yards (123.8 – 104th) vs. Bama rushing yards allowed (125.6 – 32nd)
- Oklahoma rushing yards (229.9 – 59th) vs. Bama passing yards allowed (157.7 – 6th)
- Oklahoma points scored (26.4 – 73rd) vs. Bama points allowed (17.4 – 12th)
As stated, the NCAA odds have dropped half a point on Alabama, which is more indicative of early public money considering the Oklahoma victory in their previous matchup a month ago than it is indicative of sharp money pouring in on the home dog.
We will gladly take advantage of any line shift that goes our way, so with that, lay the point and back Bama.
Expert Pick: Alabama -1 (-108) at Heritage Sports
Alabama’s Ty Simpson (Total Over 240.5 Passing Yards)
Alabama is a team that used to be known for its relentless ground attack, but that is no longer the case. The Crimson Tide averages only 116.2 rushing yards per game, which places them a dismal 119th in the nation in that category.
However, the aerial attack led by Ty Simpson is the straw that stirs the drink. The junior quarterback has averaged over 251 passing yards per game this season and threw for 326 yards in his last meeting with Oklahoma.
After reviewing the NCAAF player props page, this prop appears to have the most significant value. Let’s watch Simpson scorch the Sooners’ secondary as he did a month ago and fly over the posted total of 240 ½ passing yards.
Expert Pick: Ty Simpson Over 240.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada
Make Your Friday Night Football Bets
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Remember, the lines and odds don’t stay stagnant. They move, so why not review our Friday night football bets on Alabama and over Ty Simpson’s passing total when the getting is good? Lock in on a line at top offshore sportsbooks like Bovada and Bookmaker, and you’ll never have to worry that you missed out on value.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
