Duke vs. Miami College Football Week 10 Picks: Bet the Under on Saturday

Duke’s Tough Home Loss Against SMU

When the game was on the line, Duke went all-in for the win, but SMU’s defense held firm. Duke’s high-stakes two-point conversion attempt in overtime came up short, as the Mustangs forced an incomplete pass to clinch a narrow 28-27 victory over the Blue Devils in a thrilling showdown on Saturday.

Despite a 6-0 turnover advantage, Duke couldn’t capitalize on SMU’s mistakes. Maalik Murphy led Duke’s offense with 295 passing yards, completing 27 of 48 attempts and tossing three touchdowns, while Star Thomas added 65 yards and a rushing touchdown.

In overtime, SMU struck first with a 24-yard scoring run from Smith. Duke quickly responded with a touchdown pass from Murphy to Eli Pancol, setting up a two-point conversion attempt to secure the win. Murphy, flushed from the pocket, scrambled right under pressure, but his pass to Pancol fell incomplete.

SMU’s turnovers—three fumbles and three interceptions—didn’t lead to points for Duke, marking missed opportunities in a game decided by the smallest of margins.

Miami Dominated Florida State

Cam Ward threw for 208 yards and caught a touchdown as Miami cruised past rival Florida State 36-14 on Saturday, staying unbeaten. Damien Martinez powered Miami’s ground game with 148 rushing yards and two touchdowns, the second-highest rushing total against Florida State in series history, behind Stephen McGuire’s 176 yards in 1990.

Mark Fletcher Jr. also contributed a rushing touchdown, and Andres Borregales added three field goals, ending Miami’s three-game losing streak to the Seminoles.

Miami wide receiver Xavier Restrepo made history, surpassing legends Michael Irvin and Reggie Wayne. His 13-yard catch in the third quarter bumped him to second on Miami’s all-time receptions list (174 catches) and third in career yardage (2,427 yards).

Key Matchups

Murphy has shown his arm talent for the Blue Devils, but converting turnovers into points remains a pressing concern for Duke. Meanwhile, Miami’s offense has demonstrated versatility, with Ward connecting well with his receivers and Martinez powering through defenses on the ground. This matchup will likely come down to execution in key moments and whether Duke can finally turn defensive stops into points.

Duke’s Passing Attack vs. Miami’s Defense

Murphy has had flashes of brilliance, with 295 yards and three touchdowns last week. Yet, against Miami, which boasts a disciplined secondary and can apply pressure through its defensive front, Murphy’s ability to avoid costly mistakes and find targets like Pancol will be critical.

Miami’s defense, which has disrupted opposing offenses all season, will look to capitalize if Murphy’s accuracy wavers under pressure. If Miami forces Murphy into hurried throws, Duke could struggle to find a rhythm.

Miami’s Ground Game vs. Duke’s Defense

Martinez was relentless against Florida State, notching 148 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Duke, which held its ground defensively by forcing six turnovers against SMU, must replicate that toughness if they hope to slow Martinez and make Miami more predictable.

If Martinez gets into a groove, it could open up the field for Ward, creating a multi-dimensional Miami offense that Duke might struggle to contain.

Turnovers and Red Zone Efficiency

Duke’s inability to capitalize on a 6-0 turnover advantage last week exposed a key weakness, one Miami is likely to exploit. Miami, on the other hand, has shown resilience in converting drives, with special teams also stepping up.

If Duke’s defense forces turnovers again, the offense must respond in the red zone, as field goals likely won’t be enough to outpace Miami’s scoring threat.

Xavier Restrepo vs. Duke’s Secondary

Restrepo continues to climb Miami’s all-time receiving charts, showcasing his reliability and clutch playmaking. Duke’s secondary will be challenged by his ability to find space and extend plays, especially if Ward seeks him out on critical downs.

Limiting Restrepo’s impact could disrupt Miami’s aerial attack, making them rely more on the ground game.

The Pick

This showdown could begin as a cautious, low-scoring affair as both teams feel out each other’s defenses. Miami’s balance on offense and Duke’s occasional red-zone inefficiency suggest Miami might have an edge. If Duke’s defense can create turnovers and Murphy converts those into points, however, the Blue Devils have a chance to turn the tide.

Ultimately, Miami’s success running the ball with Martinez and Ward’s ability to spread the field should give them a slight advantage in what can be a low-scoring game.

College Football Pick: Under 55 (-110) at BetOnline

Under 55 (-110)

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