We have a 14-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups on Friday, with the two London participants this weekend getting an extra day off. We are here with a play that, according to the MLB odds, we feel has the most betting value at top-rated sportsbooks.
This value bet is based mostly on our proprietary model, which points to a total in the marquee Dodgers vs. Yankees matchup on Friday.
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MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (+100) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Yankees
Friday, June 07, 2024 – 07:05 PM ET at Yankee Stadium
Look for a low-scoring affair in a marquee cross-country battle in the Bronx on Friday when Yoshinobu Yamamoto and the Dodgers visit Cody Poteet and the Yankees.
Living Up to Contract
Yamamoto signed a huge contract with the Dodgers after pitching in Japan, and he has looked the part of the staff ace after a rough Major League debut in Korea. He is 6-2 with a 3.32 ERA overall while ranking eighth in the majors in xFIP at a sparkling 2.75. Moreover, if we back out his rough debut, he has a 2.67 ERA and aligning 2.69 xFIP since then in 11 stateside starts.
Yoshinobu combines a vast arsenal and impeccable command. He has six different pitches he can throw for strikes, including a 95.6 MPH fastball and a deceptive splitter he throws with the same fastball motion at 90.3 MPH. The end-results have been a spiffy K/BB ratio of 10.52/1.94 per nine innings and a very good 47.2% groundball rate.
Yes, the Yankees have a tough lineup, but they have never faced Yamamoto before with this being an interleague matchup. That advantage usually goes to the pitcher, especially a very good pitcher.
Solid So Far
If we are correct about Yamamoto continuing his success, that would give Poteet a bit of leeway in allowing a few runs and this game still staying Under the total. And he has looked good in his two starts for the Bronx Bombers sandwiched around a stint in the minor leagues.
Yes, he has pitched only 11 innings at the big-league level this year, but he allowed one run in six innings in his first start back in April, and then two earned runs in five innings upon his recall on June 1st. That has equated to a 2.45 ERA and 2.75 xFIP over a small sampling with 10 strikeouts against just one walk in the 11 innings.
The Pick
So, with Yamamoto approaching elite status since his debut and Poteet seemingly capable of doing his part, bet the Under Friday night.
Predicted Score: Dodgers 4 – Yankees 2
MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (+100) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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