We have a 14-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups on Friday, with the two London participants this weekend getting an extra day off. And we have a play that, according to the MLB odds, we feel has the most betting value at top-rated sportsbooks.
This play is based mostly on our proprietary model. This time, our model favors a side when the Red Sox visit the White Sox.
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MLB Pick: White Sox ML (-112) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox
Friday, June 07, 2024 – 08:10 PM ET at Guaranteed Rate Field
Yes, the White Sox may have the worst record in baseball. Nonetheless, they get our call Friday holding the substantial pitching edge at home with Garrett Crochet hosting Cooper Criswell and the Red Sox.
Bright Spot in Dark Season
As awful as the White Sox have been, Crochet has been the brightest spot of a dreary season. After pitching exclusively as a reliever his first three years in the Major Leagues, the Pale Hose converted him into a starter this year and that has proven to be a genius move. He obviously deserves better than a 5-5 record, but at the same time, he has a third of the wins for a team that is 15-48.
Garrett has a 3.49 ERA accompanied by a 2.50 xFIP that ranks third in baseball. He has an excellent K/BB ratio of 12.01/1.94 per nine innings while maintaining an average velocity of 96.9 MPH even while conserving more energy as a starter. He has a very good swinging-strike rate of 14.3% and is even generating a good groundball rate of 45.2%.
We give Crochet an excellent chance of providing the White Sox a rare win tonight as long as he can get just a little run support.
Deceptive Strikeout Rate
And we do think that Chicago will be able to scratch out some runs against Criswell. Yes, he has shown improvement this season over his rookie year last season. He currently owns a 3.92 ERA and 3.47 xFIP over 43.2 innings compared to a 5.73 ERA and 4.54 xFIP in 2023. However, we are a bit dubious about his strikeout spike to 8.45/9 from 7.36/9 as a rookie.
The reason for our skepticism is that the spike has come despite a low 7.9% swinging-strike rate that has remained flat relative to 7.8% last year. That implies the increase has had more to do with called strikes than with anything Cooper is doing. And when Criswell does allow contact, his hard-contact rate is up to 32.0% from 28.4%, so we foresee his ERA and xFIP rising as he gets fewer called strikes.
The Pick
Therefore, we are betting on the White Sox to score enough runs to properly support Crochet for his fine pitching this season.
Predicted Score: White Sox 4 – Red Sox 2
MLB Pick: White Sox ML (-112) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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