We have a 14-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups on Friday, with the two London participants this weekend getting an extra day off. As usual, we are here with a play that, according to the MLB odds, we feel has the most betting value at top-rated sportsbooks.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model. Our model likes a side in San Diego on Friday with the Diamondbacks visiting the Padres.
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MLB Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+113) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres
Friday, June 07, 2024 – 09:40 PM ET at Petco Park
Brandon Pfaadt continues to provide strong metrics despite mediocre frontline stats. Thus, we are betting his Diamondbacks as small underdogs Friday visiting an overachieving Michael King and the Padres.
Signs Point to Positive Regression
We have supported Pfaadt in practically every start this year after he was a key piece to Arizona’s World Series run last season as perhaps their best pitcher after August 1st. Thus, we are not exactly pleased about his 2-4 record and 4.32 ERA. However, he has pitched better than that given his much better 3.59 xFIP.
He has a good K/BB ratio of 8.75/1.73 per nine innings, with the walks down from 2.44/9 last season. He has also seen a huge dip in his hard-contact rate since last year, from 38.6% to 25.6%. Yet, despite the good strikeout rate and dip in hard contact, Brandon has been extremely unlucky with a ridiculously low 59.0% strand rate. He should converge toward the good xFIP as the strand rate normalizes.
Walks Up, Velocity Down
Whereas Pfaadt has been unlucky so far, King has had luck on his side while posting a 3.82 ERA and 3.78 xFIP. You see, he has posted those decent figures despite his average velocity being at a career-low 93.5. Now, there are occasions when pitchers sacrifice some velocity to gain better command, but that has not been the case with King.
In fact, Michael’s velocity drop has been accompanied by a big rise in his walk rate to a disturbing 3.82/9 from 2.75/9 last season. Yet, he has pitched around those extra baserunners despite allowing much air contact with his groundball rate at a low 39.2%. His saving grace has been a very good strikeout rate of 9.62/9, but even that is down from 10.92/9 last year and we are not sure the current rate is sustainable unless his velocity returns to prior levels.
The Pick
With these pitchers seemingly on the opposite end of the luck scale, back Pfaadt and the Diamondbacks as road underdogs.
Predicted Score: Diamondbacks 4 – Padres 3
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+113) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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