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Cubs vs. Guardians MLB Best Bet: Cleveland To Tame Cubbies at Home
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LT Profits
- August 14, 2024
Table of Contents
MLB Pick: Guardians ML (-132) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We have a full 15-game card of MLB betting matchups for Wednesday with every team in action. And we are back with the three plays from top sportsbooks we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds.
These value-bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, which points to a side on the shores of Lake Erie in the Cubs vs. Guardians matchup Wednesday.
For in-depth coverage, expert analysis, and all the excitement of this year’s most thrilling baseball showdown, check out our MLB World Series betting page.
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Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians
Wednesday, August 14, 2024 – 06:40 PM ET at Progressive Field
Hard Air Contact
Jameson Taillon of the Cubs is not as good as his ERA while Alex Cobb has a great Cleveland bullpen backing him for his second start of the season. We are backing the first-place Guardians at home.
Taillon comes in at 8-6 with a 3.50 ERA through 20 starts, but we are dubious about that ERA. His xFIP is noticeably higher at 4.22, and while he does have an excellent walk rate of 1.77/9, neither his strikeout rate (7.00/9) nor his groundball rate (39.2%) are anything special. Thus, he can be classified as an air-contact pitcher.
The problem with that is he has a weak soft/hard contact ratio of 15.1% / 32.7%, so it makes sense that his home runs allowed rate is on the high side at 1.32/9, which ranks 25th highest in baseball. Jameson also has an overall Stuff+ rating of only 86, so we do not feel that the current ERA is sustainable.
Short Leash, Great Bullpen
The Guardians are tied with the Dodgers for the best record in all of baseball at 71-49, although Alex Cobb has had nothing to do with that. He was hit hard in his first start of the season, allowing four earned runs in 4.2 innings. The news was not all bad however as he generated a 63.2% groundball rate with his heavy 93.7 MPH sinker. And “throwing grounders” is what Cobb does with a career rate of 54.6%.
Alex is certainly capable of an improved effort tonight with the one start now under his belt, especially if those groundballs find gloves instead of holes. Regardless, he may be on a short leash with Cleveland not wanting to overextend him just yet. But we are fine with that, as the Guardians’ bullpen leads the Major Leagues in both ERA (2.74) and xFIP (3.59).
The Pick
So, we trust Cobb and the Cleveland bullpen to keep the Cubs’ bets quiet, while we are skeptical of Taillon’s continued success. Therefore, we are betting on the Guardians as home favorites on Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Guardians 5 – Cubs 3
MLB Pick: Guardians ML (-132) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
