NHL Rocket Richard Trophy Odds 2026

Charlie Boudreau
October 7, 2025

Betting Predictions and Top Goal Scorers

The Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy is awarded to the NHL’s top goal scorer each season. It’s one of the most thrilling futures bets because every goal feels like it cashes your ticket.

Heading into 2026, Leon Draisaitl and Auston Matthews open as the clear favorites. Kirill Kaprizov and David Pastrnak are also firmly in the mix, making this year’s race look wide open.

Odds are courtesy of BetOnline as of 10/07/2025.

Quick Take: Rocket Richard Odds 2026

Favorite: Leon Draisaitl (+310) – Fresh off his first Rocket Richard with 52 goals last season. Books finally gave him the top spot, and it’s hard to argue against it.
Top Value: David Pastrnak (+1000) – Boston’s offense still runs through him, yet he’s priced longer than he should be. His upside makes this number worth a look.
Best Sleeper: William Nylander (+1800) – Overshadowed in Toronto by Matthews, but if his shooting pace holds, he has the upside to surprise this market.

The Fallen Favorite: Connor McDavid (+1600) – No longer the automatic pick, now outside the top three. He’s leaned more toward playmaking, but with a 64-goal season not long ago, his upside can’t be ignored.

Current Rocket Richard Odds 2026

The board looks a little different this year. Draisaitl sits on top after finally cashing the trophy, Matthews is breathing down his neck, and the middle tier is loaded with value if you know where to look.

Odds are courtesy of BetOnline as of 10/07/2025

Player	Odds	Team	Betting Angle
Leon Draisaitl	+310	Edmonton Oilers	Just won the trophy with 52 goals. The chalk play that makes sense.
Auston Matthews	+340	Toronto Maple Leafs	One of the few players who can realistically hit 60. Shot volume is unmatched.
Kirill Kaprizov	+550	Minnesota Wild	Firmly priced as a favorite, and the stats back it up.
David Pastrnak	+1000	Boston Bruins	Undervalued every season. Boston leans on him more than the odds suggest.
Connor McDavid	+1600	Edmonton Oilers	More playmaker than sniper, but this price is rare for him.
Nathan MacKinnon	+1900	Colorado Avalanche	Usually known for setups, but his shot totals keep him in the mix.
William Nylander	+1800	Toronto Maple Leafs	If his shooting pace holds, he can shake things up.
Tage Thompson	+2000	Buffalo Sabres	Big frame, big shot, health is the swing factor.
Mikko Rantanen	+2000	Colorado Avalanche	Overshadowed by MacKinnon, but his release is lethal.
Brayden Point	+2200	Tampa Bay Lightning	Efficient and dangerous, especially on Tampa’s power play.

Breaking Down the Top Contenders

Leon Draisaitl (Edmonton Oilers)
Draisaitl is finally getting the respect he deserves after winning last year’s Rocket Richard with 52 goals. He is one of the few players in the league who makes 50 feel routine. That one-timer of his on the power play is one of the most predictable, yet unstoppable, plays in hockey.

Stat to know: He scored 16 power-play goals last season.

Betting angle: The rightful favorite. If McDavid misses any time, Draisaitl’s usage jumps; even with a full lineup, his top-unit role keeps the upside in the 50-plus range.

Auston Matthews (Toronto Maple Leafs)
When it comes to pure shot volume, Matthews is still the benchmark. He has multiple 60-goal seasons under his belt and remains one of the most dangerous shooters from anywhere inside the blue line. Even in a “down year” he is a nightmare for goalies.

Stat to know: Matthews has three Rocket Richards already, including that 69-goal season in 2023–24.

Betting angle: If his odds drift at any point in the season, that is the moment to buy. Matthews heats up late and has made midseason bettors a lot of money.

Kirill Kaprizov (Minnesota Wild)
Kaprizov is still waiting for Minnesota’s offense to catch up to his talent, but his individual numbers are undeniable. He fires the puck at elite volume, and if the Wild ever figure out their power play, he is in line for a career-best year.

Stat to know: He averaged 3.5 shots on goal per game last season.

Betting angle: At +550, he’s priced among the favorites. If Minnesota’s power play heats up, a 10-goal month could tighten this number fast.

David Pastrnak (Boston Bruins)
Pastrnak continues to be undervalued by sportsbooks. He is Boston’s offensive engine and owns one of the deadliest one-timers in hockey. Every year the market prices him behind Matthews and Draisaitl, and every year he puts up similar totals.

Stat to know: Pastrnak finished last season with 319 shots, second most in the league.

Betting angle: At +1000, he has better ROI potential than Matthews while still offering 50-goal upside.

Connor McDavid (Edmonton Oilers)
McDavid is still the best player in hockey, but his role is shifting. He is more likely to rack up assists than challenge for the goal crown, which is why he is sitting at +1600 now. That said, McDavid at a long number is always dangerous. One hot streak and he is back in the mix.

Stat to know: He had a 64-goal season just three years ago.

Betting angle: This is purely a value play. At this price, you are betting on talent and the possibility that he decides to chase goals again.

Dark Horse: Tage Thompson (Buffalo Sabres)
Thompson is not at the top of anyone’s preseason list, but his ceiling is massive. At 6’6″ with a heavy shot, he has the kind of frame that wears down defenses. If Buffalo’s offense clicks and he stays healthy, a 50-goal push is not out of reach.

Stat to know: Thompson put up 47 goals in 2022–23 and still has room to grow.

Betting angle: At +2000, he is a dart throw worth considering. The upside is there if everything breaks right.

Stats and Trends That Matter

If you are betting the Rocket Richard, you need to know what actually wins this award. It is not luck. The numbers leave a trail.

Goal totals: Recent winners almost always clear 55. Matthews hit 69 in 2023–24. McDavid dropped 64 the year before that. Draisaitl’s 52 last season was on the low end, but it still got the job done.
Age window: The sweet spot is mid-20s. Matthews, McDavid, Draisaitl, all cashed this award between 24 and 29. That is the prime range for scoring explosions.
Power play scoring: Look at the leaderboard. Most winners crush with the man advantage. Draisaitl led the league in power play goals in 2024–25. McDavid and Matthews have done the same.
Shot volume: High-volume shooters are the best bets. Pastrnak fired 319 shots last season. Matthews has only surpassed 350 shots once. Players outside the top ten in shot totals rarely turn those odds into a winning ticket.

Bottom line: The Rocket Richard is usually won by a volume shooter in his prime who eats on the power play. That is why the same names keep popping up, and why sharp bettors avoid chasing long shots that do not check those boxes.

Season	Winner	Goals	Age at Win
2024–25	Leon Draisaitl	52	29
2023–24	Auston Matthews	69	26
2022–23	Connor McDavid	64	27
2021–22	Auston Matthews	60	24
2020–21	Auston Matthews	41*	23

*Shortened 56-game season

Key Takeaways for Bettors

Recent winners usually score 56 or more goals in a full season.
The prime winning window is age 23 to 29. Most winners are in their mid-20s.
Power play scoring is a common factor. McDavid, Draisaitl, and Matthews all leaned heavily on man-advantage production.
High shot volume is the best predictor. Nearly every winner has ranked in the league’s top five in shots per game.

Adding these patterns into your betting strategy helps you separate true contenders from longshots who are unlikely to sustain elite production.

Value Picks and Betting Insights

Favorites are fine if you want a safe but smaller return. The real edge comes from finding value further down the board. Players who have the role, volume, and scoring touch to break into the race if things click.

William Nylander (+1800)

Often overshadowed by Auston Matthews, Nylander quietly posts elite shooting numbers. If he maintains his pace from last season, he could push past 40–50 goals, and at this price, he offers more upside than the chalk picks.

Mikko Rantanen (+2000)

Playing alongside Nathan MacKinnon in Colorado means plenty of scoring opportunities. Rantanen’s release is one of the quickest in the league, and if the Avalanche’s power play hums, he has the tools to mount a serious run.

Brayden Point (+2200)

Efficiency is Point’s calling card. He doesn’t fire as many shots as Matthews or Pastrnak, but he buries chances at a high clip, especially on Tampa’s lethal power play. If he stays healthy, +2200 feels like sneaky value.

Timing the Bet

Rocket Richard odds shift fast. One hot month can slash a player’s number in half. Smart bettors buy early on proven shooters rather than chasing after a heater.

Watching Odds Movement

Odds for the Rocket Richard can swing in a heartbeat. A hot streak, a line shuffle, or even a minor injury rumor is enough to move the market. If you are paying attention, you can catch value before the books shut the window.

What to Watch:

Linemates: A new playmaker on the top line can spike a shooter’s totals overnight. Watch for midseason line changes.
Power play efficiency: Most Rocket winners eat with the man advantage. If a team’s power play starts humming, their top shooter usually follows.
Injury news: Books react quickly, sometimes too quickly. If the “injury” is just maintenance or day-to-day, you can grab inflated numbers.
Streaks: Bettors chase heaters. A ten-goal month will slash a player’s odds in half. If you were tracking shot volume early, you are already in ahead of the rush.

Takeaway: The Rocket Richard market rewards patience and timing. The winners are usually the same names we expect, but the profit goes to those who buy them before the goals hit the scoreboard.