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Cardinals vs. Twins MLB Best Bet: Redbirds Fly Past Minnesota in Upset
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LT Profits
- August 23, 2024
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MLB Pick: Cardinals ML (+125) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We enter Friday’s full slate of MLB betting matchups off a winning 2-1 day on Wednesday. We return today with three plays from top sportsbooks that we feel hold great betting value at the current MLB odds.
These plays are based mostly on our proprietary model. One of the best bets for Friday comes in the Twin Cities, where our model favors a side when the Cardinals visit the Twins.
For in-depth coverage, expert analysis, and all the excitement of this year’s most thrilling baseball showdown, visit our MLB World Series betting page.
If you’re looking for more MLB value picks:
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins
Friday, August 23, 2024 – 08:10 PM ET at Target Field
We do not feel that David Festa of the Twins is worthy of this much favoritism on Friday, so we are betting on an upset by Andre Pallante and the Cardinals on the road.
Hard Air Contact
David Festa comes in at 2-2 with a 4.96 ERA. While he did have a decent outing last time out allowing two runs on six hits in five innings with six strikeouts, that was vs. the mightily struggling Texas Rangers. And those five innings matched the longest the rookie has worked in his six Major League starts, as he has been prone to elevated pitch counts.
Granted, David has a nice strikeout rate of 10.74/9, but it is what happens when he is not striking people out that we feel makes him a vulnerable favorite. You see, he combines a low groundball rate of 30.8% with a high hard contact rate of 32.6%, which is a combination you never like to see. And the results have been rather predictable with seven home runs allowed already in only 32.2 innings, equating to a poor rate of 1.93/9.
Reliable as Starter
Andre Pallante began this season with nine relief appearances before making his first start on May 29th, and his pitching has allowed him to remain in the rotation ever since. He has made 13 starts, and while he is only 5-5 in that role, that has come with a 3.75 ERA and an aligning 3.80 xFIP over 65.2 starter innings.
He is in good current form having allowed three earned runs or less in six of his last eight starts. This stretch includes allowing one earned run or less four times and two earned runs another time. Andre has increased his slider usage as a starter, which is shrewd considering that pitch rates 115 on Stuff+, and he has a very heavy 95.1 MPH sinker. That arsenal has helped induce an excellent 62.1% groundball rate for the season.
The Pick
We rate Pallante as the better overall pitcher right now, and he is becoming quite comfortable with his starter role based on his current form. That is enough for us to back the Cardinals as underdogs in Minnesota.
Predicted Score: Cardinals 5 – Twins 3
MLB Pick: Cardinals ML (+125) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
