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Nationals vs. Braves MLB Best Bet: Flash Sale on the Under in Atlanta
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LT Profits
- August 23, 2024
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MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We are coming off a winning 2-1 Wednesday as we enter Friday’s 15-game card of MLB betting matchups. We are back with the three plays from top sportsbooks that we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds.
These value bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, which points to a total in the Peach State in the Nationals vs. Braves matchup on Friday.
For in-depth coverage, expert analysis, and all the excitement of this year’s most thrilling baseball showdown, visit our MLB World Series betting page.
If you’re looking for more MLB value picks:
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves
Friday, August 23, 2024 – 07:20 PM ET at Truist Park
Chris Sale of the Braves is the favorite to win the NL Cy Young Award this season, And while we think his money line price is too prohibitive, we are backing him to key an Under hosting MacKenzie Gore and the Nationals.
Best Pitcher in Baseball?
Chris Sale has had an injury plagues career, but he has remained healthy for a change this season while regaining his velocity, with his fastball and sinker averaging an identical 94.4 MPH. As a result, he has put up some of the best numbers in baseball as he is 14-3 while ranking second in the majors in ERA (2.62) and leading the league in both xFIP (2.06) and WAR (5.1).
Chris has an amazing K/BB ratio of 11.96/2.05 per nine innings, while his heavy sinker is inducing a good groundball rate of 45.7%. Furthermore, batters are not getting good swings against them as he owns a great soft/hard contact ratio of 17.8% / 23.9%.
Tonight, he also has the luxury of facing a Washington offense ranked 26th in wRC+ against left-handed pitchers at just 86.
Best Season Despite Record
Given that we expect the Nationals to do next to nothing against Sale, we feel that Gore is more than capable of preserving this Under with a solid effort. Yes, his frontline stats have him at 7-11 with a 4.66 ERA and 4.06 xFIP, but we see some encouraging signs in his underlying metrics.
Remember that MacKenzie Gore was the third overall pick in the first round of the 2017 draft, and at the age of 25, he has shown some nice improvements in his third Major League season. He has a nice strikeout rate of 9.74/9 over 125.2 innings, and he has lowered his hard contact rate substantially to 29.5% from 35.4% last year. That has correlated to a sharp drop in his home run rare allowed to 0.79/9 from 1.78/9.
And do not forget that the Braves are not nearly as good offensively this year as last season, and they have scored three runs or less in six of the last seven games.
The Pick
So, the combination of Sale being probably the best pitcher in the game, Gore being better than his mainstream stats and two suspect offenses has us betting the Under on Friday.
Predicted Score: Braves 4 – Nationals 1
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
