Boise State vs. UNLV College Football Week 9 Picks: Who Will Win This Mountain West Battle?

Jeanty and Madsen Helped Boise State Beat Hawaii

Ashton Jeanty racked up 237 all-purpose yards and scored twice, powering Boise State to a 28-7 victory over Hawaii on October 12. The Broncos extended their win streak to four games following a tight loss at Oregon on September 7.

Jeanty, the Football Bowl Subdivision’s leading rusher, had a season-high 31 carries for 217 yards, marking his third 200-yard game of the season and the fifth of his career. He added three receptions for 20 yards. Jeanty burst out of the gate with 93 rushing yards on eight carries in the first quarter and reached 115 yards on 15 rushes by halftime.

Maddux Madsen contributed to the offensive effort, completing 17 of 25 passes for 217 yards and two touchdowns.

Despite Boise State’s offensive firepower this season, their defense has faced challenges, particularly in pass coverage. Before the Hawaii game, they allowed an average of nearly 280 passing yards per game, ranking 123rd nationally. Hawaii managed to throw for 264 yards in this contest.

However, Boise State’s defense shined with its pass rush, recording eight sacks—four in each half—and totaling 12 tackles for loss. Jayden Virgil-Morgan led the charge with 2.5 sacks, while Seyi Oladipo added two.

UNLV Took Care of Business Against Oregon State

Hajj-Malik Williams accounted for three touchdowns, and Caden Chittenden nailed four field goals (20, 34, 34, and 29 yards) to lead UNLV past Oregon State, 33-25.

Williams threw for 196 yards and a touchdown, completing 15 of 27 passes, and added 65 rushing yards and two scores on 13 carries. Ricky White III hauled in nine catches for 88 yards, including a 22-yard touchdown that sealed the win with 4:53 left.

Defensively, UNLV dominated with six sacks compared to Oregon State’s one. Antonio Doyle led with three sacks and 10 total tackles, while Jalen Catalon also posted 10 tackles and forced a fumble, which Cameron Oliver recovered, setting up the go-ahead score.

White, who blocked his third punt of the season (a school record), helped UNLV with its fourth team punt block of 2024. His block set up a crucial field goal just before halftime, narrowing the deficit to 17-16.

Key Matchups

Boise State’s offense has leaned heavily on the explosive play of Jeanty, while their defense continues to dominate up front despite some weaknesses in the secondary. On the other hand, UNLV is riding high on Williams’ playmaking ability, both through the air and on the ground. This matchup will come down to which team can assert its strengths and minimize its vulnerabilities.

Ashton Jeanty vs. UNLV’s Defensive Front

Jeanty has been an unstoppable force, leading the FBS in rushing and coming off a monster 217-yard performance against Hawaii. UNLV’s defense, while solid in pressuring the quarterback, will need to prove they can slow down a running back of Jeanty’s caliber.

Doyle’s ability to disrupt in the backfield will be key for the Rebels, but if Boise’s offensive line opens up lanes for Jeanty, he could have another massive game.

Hajj-Malik Williams vs. Boise State’s Secondary

Williams has been effective both passing and rushing, and Boise State has struggled to contain teams through the air, allowing nearly 280 passing yards per game before their matchup with Hawaii.

With Williams’ dual-threat capability, the Broncos’ defense will need to tighten up in coverage while also containing his scrambling ability. Boise’s strong pass rush, led by Virgil-Morgan, could make life difficult for Williams if they can get home early and often.

Boise State’s Pass Rush vs. UNLV’s Offensive Line

Boise State leads the nation in sacks, and their defensive front has been relentless in pressuring quarterbacks. UNLV’s offensive line will face a stiff test in protecting Williams, especially considering that Boise racked up eight sacks in their last game. If Boise’s front seven can apply consistent pressure, it may force Williams into mistakes or limit UNLV’s offensive rhythm.

Special Teams and Turnovers

Both teams have seen their special teams come up with big plays this season. UNLV’s White blocked his third punt of the season last week, and Boise will need to be on high alert to avoid giving up a game-changing play in this phase. Turnovers could also swing momentum, especially if either team’s defense can generate a short field for their offense.

The Pick

This game will likely be a back-and-forth contest, with both teams finding success in their areas of strength. Jeanty’s dominance on the ground could give Boise State control of the clock and keep UNLV’s offense off the field. However, if Williams can avoid the relentless Boise pass rush and make plays with his legs, UNLV could keep things tight deep into the fourth quarter.

Ultimately, Boise State’s balance on offense and ability to pressure the quarterback should be the difference in this game. Jeanty is poised for another standout performance, and Boise’s defense will come up with key stops in the second half to seal the win and cover.

College Football Pick: Boise State -2.5 (-115) at BetOnline

Boise State -2.5 (-115)

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