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Blue Jays vs. Red Sox MLB Best Bet: Boston to Ground Toronto at Home
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LT Profits
- August 28, 2024
Table of Contents
MLB Pick: Red Sox ML (-142) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We are 6-3 in our last nine plays entering Wednesday’s 15-game card of MLB betting matchups following another 2-1 Sunday. We are back today with the three plays we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds available on top sportsbooks.
These value bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, which points to a side in Beantown in the Blue Jays vs. Red Sox matchup Wednesday.
For in-depth coverage, expert analysis, and all the excitement of this year’s most thrilling baseball showdown, visit our MLB World Series betting page.
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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox
Wednesday, August 28, 2024 – 07:10 PM ET at Fenway Park
The Red Sox are clinging to their playoff hopes as they are four games behind the Twins for the third and final AL Wild Card spot. We are backing them to gain ground at home in Boston with Brayan Bello hosting Chris Bassitt and the Blue Jays.
Declining Skills?
Chris Bassitt has carved out a nice career in the Major Leagues while posting an ERA under 4.00 each of the last six seasons. However, he is now 35 years old and has shown signs of slippage this year as he has a 4.41 ERA and mostly aligning 4.27 xFIP through 26 starts covering 145 innings.
Chris has been fortunate to maintain a good strikeout rate of 8,69/9 considering his swinging strike rate is down to just 8.3%, which indicates he has gotten many called third strikes. Also, his walk rate is up to a disturbing 3.48/9 and he has a moderate overall Stuff+ of 94.
Perhaps worst of all, Bassitt’s high hard contact rate of 34.2% is at its highest point since 2019, and he is facing a Boston lineup that is sixth in the majors in home runs with 167.
Good xFIP
Now, Brayan Bello does not have a good ERA for someone with an 11-8 record at 4.95. But the good news there is his xFIP is more than a full run better at a good 3.87. The ERA has been a bit inflated by being unlucky with a BABIP allowed of .314, and his strikeout rate of 8.51/9 in his third season in the majors is a stark improvement from 7.57/9 in his second season last year.
Brayan had gone seven straight starts, allowing three runs or less before allowing five runs to a red-hot Diamondbacks team in his last outing. He has also lowered his hard contact by 5% for the season to 30.1% from 35.1% last year. Thus, we like him to regain his form of the previous seven starts before the rough outing against Arizona now facing a less hot offense.
The Pick
The expected bounce-back for Bello combined with Bassitt losing some of his form at 35 years old has us betting on the Red Sox on Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Red Sox 6 – Blue Jays 4
MLB Pick: Red Sox ML (-142) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
