Top NFL Pick: 49ers Total Third-Down Conversions Under 5½ (-145) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The rematch between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers is set and there are arguments to be made for both teams to take home the hardware. But below we will focus on our top NFL game props to fatten our bankroll at the top-rated sportsbooks, while we watch the most highly-anticipated Super Bowl in years.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, February 11, 2024 – 06:30 PM ET at Allegiant Stadium
49ers Total Third Down Conversions
- Under 5½ -145
- Over 5½ +115
At first blush this total looks a bit low, after all, it’s the San Francisco 49ers and their 3rd-ranked offense, averaging north of 28½ points per game. But if we take a look inside the numbers, we see that the Niners attempted 179 third-down conversions over the regular season, the fewest in the NFL, and were successful on 85 (47.5%) of those attempts.
From here the math is pretty easy. San Francisco played in 17 games and had 85 successful third-down conversions which equals exactly 5 per game. But some of those games were against lower-echelon defenses like the Giants, Commanders, Rams, Bengals, and Cardinals (2x).
The Pick
But now they will be pitted against Kansas City’s No. 2 ranked defense which means the sledding will be much tougher in the Super Bowl to pick up those third-down conversions. Yes, converting over five third-down tries appears doable but this looks like a good opportunity to go low in this NFL prop.
NFL Pick: 49ers Total Third Down Conversions Under 5½ (-145) at BetOnline
Both Teams to Score in the First Quarter
- No -175
- Yes +145
The total on Super Bowl 58 is 47½ at the time of this writing and a little quick math tells us that roughly 12 points per quarter is the average. But we know that the Super Bowl jitters can affect even the biggest stars and first-quarter scoring is usually lower than the other three.
However, we don’t need even close to a dozen points in the opening frame to connect on this prop even if we choose Yes (both teams will score in the first quarter). All we need is a field goal (or safety) from each team and we’re taking the bookie’s money.
If we reflect on Super Bowl 54 when these teams met, we see that Kansas City held a 7-3 lead in the opening frame that would find them trailing, 20-10, entering the fourth quarter before Patrick Mahomes put his foot on the gas and led the Chiefs to a 31-20 victory.
The Pick
But that wasn’t the last time these teams squared off. They met again in October of 2022 where Kansas City held a 10-7 lead after the first quarter and would eventually win that contest as well, via a 44-23 victory in hostile territory.
Let’s hope history repeats itself as I believe both teams will hit the scoreboard in the first quarter so let’s give this prop a big ol’ YES and make some money!
NFL Pick: Both Teams to Score in First Quarter – Yes (+145) at BetOnline
First Team to Score 10 Points
- 49ers -130
- Chiefs +100
If you’re getting down on the 49ers then you’re likely to lay the lumber on this prop, hoping that the script in your mind matches the events unfolding on the field. However, I believe the disparity at quarterback and the Super Bowl experience Mahomes and many of his teammates have over their opponents will be a key to victory.
The Pick
I don’t envision the Chiefs having the same degree of trepidation as the 49ers heading into this one because they’ve been there, done that, and have the T-shirt – as well as two Super Bowl trophies – to prove it. That will be a big advantage in scoring early but it doesn’t necessarily mean they win the game. After all, once Brock Purdy and his crew shake free of the heebie-jeebies it could be a whole new ball game.
However, for the purposes of this prop, let’s back the Chiefs to score 10 or more before their opponents on Sunday.
NFL Pick: First Team to Score 10 Points – Chiefs (+100) at BetOnline
First Turnover of the Game
- Interception -155
- Fumble +170
- No Turnover +700
Playing mistake-free football is virtually impossible. Teams will get penalties and they will commit turnovers. But this prop is not about betting on two teams to be free of penalties, it’s about them keeping the ball to themselves until they are forced to punt or kick after a score.
I realize that’s asking a lot but look at the odds that BetOnline is serving up on a platter. I believe +700 is generous and an option most of the betting public will avoid because laying the lumber is what they do best.
The Pick
Of course, the sports betting maxim, “There is no value in losing,” is always pertinent but every now and again you’ve got to take a chance at a high-value prop like this one. San Francisco has been one of the stingiest teams in allowing turnovers while the Chiefs are in the middle of the pack. Let’s make a bet that neither does the deed on Sunday.
NFL Pick: No Turnover (+700) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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