Top NFL Pick: First Quarter Total Under 9.5 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Though it seems like an eternity from the NFL Championship games to the Super Bowl, once you get to the week of the game, it goes rather swiftly. Here are betting thoughts on the first 15 to 30 minutes of the Big Game for you to play at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Let the fun begin with our NFL odds in hand!
San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, February 11, 2024 – 06:30 PM ET at Allegiant Stadium
First Quarter Betting Opportunity
Typically, the first quarter of Super Bowls are lower-scoring affairs.
Teams have nerves. There is a feeling-out process. Even if there is the occasional trick play, the execution is seldom complete from start to finish.
That is borne out in the numbers. The total opened at 47.5 and when this article was published that was still the case. With this total, that makes an average score of 12 points per quarter with one at 11.5 points.
Yet, when you do a check of the various sportsbooks, nearly all of them at this time are at 9.5 points for the first period. The natural inclination is to side with the Under. Though this could be correct, the current form suggests that could be in question.
In Kansas City’s three playoff games, they have scored in the first quarter:
- 7 points against Miami.
- 3 points against Buffalo.
- 7 points against Baltimore.
In each instance, coach Andy Reid put together a good plan of attack against his opponent. Needless to say, Patrick Mahomes was able to execute it for early points.
On the other side of the coin, San Francisco gave up a field goal to Green Bay on the opening drive. It should have been at least three more, as the Packers went on 4th and 1 at the 49ers 10-yard line and failed in the first quarter. Detroit opened with two touchdowns on the Niners to grab a 14-0 lead.
Using this thinking, the Chiefs should score a TD or field goal in the opening stanza. The wild card is San Fran, who is scoreless in the first quarter in two playoff games with Kansas City permitting only 10 points in 45 postseason minutes to start games.
NFL Pick: First Quarter Total Under 9.5 (-115) at BetOnline
First-Half Betting Opportunities
After a couple of sluggish opening quarters, Brock Purdy and company started to wake up in the second quarter this postseason.
Granted two touchdowns and a total of 14 points do not make San Francisco look unbeatable, nonetheless, it is an improvement.
Kansas City has held two half-time leads in these playoffs, 9-7 over the Dolphins and 10-0 over the Ravens. It looked like the Chiefs might have had another against Buffalo. However, Josh Allen scored a touchdown with only 26 seconds till halftime, giving the Bills a 14-10 lead.
Given how sharp Mahomes and K.C.’s offense has played in the first 30 minutes, it is not going out on a limb to suggest the Chiefs could have the halftime lead. This is further supported by Kansas City 9-0 against the 1st half line vs. teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards per attempt the last three seasons.
NFL Pick: Chiefs First Half +0.5 (-110) at BetOnline
Modest Bets
Given the lack of success by San Francisco early and how Kansas City has performed just the opposite, here are a couple of small wagers on player props to ponder.
It seems Mahomes using what Reid has cooked up for the opening drive might make the Chiefs worth a look (small wagers) to score. That is why this could be possible.
Lastly, the Super Bowl is about having your best players play their best. Oh sure, sometimes coaches will go against form and a backup running back will score a touchdown. Or the team’s fourth option in the passing game could draw a favorable matchup facing a weak slot cover guy.
This is still about probability. That is what makes Isiah Pacheco or Travis Kelce good bets for 1st touchdown for Kansas City.
The same is true of Christian McCaffrey for San Francisco in those same instances.
Picks Recap
- Isiah Pacheco First Time TD Scorer (+550)
- Travis Kelce First Time TD Scorer (+600)
- Christian McCaffrey First Time TD Scorer (+369)
- Chiefs’ First Drive of the Game – Will Result in Touchdown (+230)
- Chiefs’ First Drive of the Game – Will Result in a Field Goal (+320)
*All odds via BetOnline.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
