Carlos Alcaraz and Francis Tiafoe take the court with the spot in the US Open finals on the line. For each player, it’s an opportunity for a career-best result in a Grand Slam.
Who will take advantage and be the winning tennis pick?
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Carlos Alcaraz vs. Francis Tiafoe
Friday, September 9, 2022 – 07:00 PM EDT at Arthur Ashe Stadium
This will be a great match between two of the more popular players on tour. Who will come out on top when they face off?
Carlos Alcaraz
Player Profile
- Alcaraz is a 19-year-old Spanish player ranked 4 in the world.
- He plays right-handed with a two-handed backhand.
- He is 49-10 on the year and has won 4 ATP titles in 2022, including two Masters 1000 tournaments.
- His hold percentage is 85.1% and his break percentage is 30.2%.
Player Analysis
Carlos Alcaraz has modeled himself after the greatest clay court player of all time, Rafael Nadal. He has replicated Nadal's ferocious tenacity to win every point and has Nadal’s commitment to conditioning and top-level physical fitness.
The Spaniard has excellent use of topspin, allowing him to pin his opponents deep behind the baseline. Alcaraz is an elite defensive player but switches to offense fluidly as soon as his opponent makes a mistake.
Alcaraz already has the point construction acumen of a 10-year veteran on the ATP tour. He mixes in screaming forehands with deft drop shots with the touch of an artist and already has a formidable serve. Combine that with his brilliance from the baseline, he has an advantage in any extended rally.
Francis Tiafoe
Player Profile
- Tiafoe is a 24-year-old American player ranked number 26 in the world.
- He plays right-handed with a two-handed backhand.
- He has made 4 ATP finals and won one ATP title in his career, the Delray Beach Open in 2018.
Player Analysis
Francis Tiafoe is a popular player. He has a warm smile and infectious personality that shines through in interviews. This will help him garner crowd support tonight
The American has had an impressive run to the semifinals including defeating tennis legend, Rafael Nadal. His quarterfinal win was a straight set victory over Andrey Rublev.
He uses an unorthodox form on his forehand to generate massive amounts of topspin. His forehand is his best weapon.
Tiafoe has been serving excellently so far here at the US Open. Against Andrey Rublev, he won 88% of his first serve points.
Player Matchup
- Both players have strong serves that have improved over the last year.
- The serving category is even, however Tiafoe will need to continue his excellent streak of being more consistent on his first serve in order to win.
Alcaraz is the better defensive player, but by a slight margin. Both players are exceptionally quick and will keep many balls in play that other players would not be able to return.
The Spaniard has the better return of serve. Alcaraz is breaking opponents at 30% on the year, one of the highest on the ATP Tour. He has more big match experience, but Tiafoe is in the best form of his life. Although I think Alcaraz is the more talented player, Tiafoe has the edge in form right now.
Moreover, Alcaraz also has the better backhand; forehand to forehand rallies will be even, so Alcaraz needs to attack Tiafoe's backhand to press his advantage. Alcaraz also has more touch and variety in his game, but with Tiafoe's current elite form, however, I don't know how much that will matter.
Tiafoe should have the support of the crowd at Arthur Ashe stadium. Alcaraz has been a fan favorite in New York so far but I would expect the American will garner the majority of the crowd support tonight.
ATP Best Pick
I like Carlos Alcaraz to end the American's dream run here tonight. Much was made about Alcaraz playing till two in the morning on Wednesday night, but he will have had plenty of time to recover. What teenager hasn't stayed up all night and been fine the next day, right?
Alcaraz will show why there has been so much hype around his blossoming career. Alcaraz has the skill, dedication, and fortitude to be a champion, and eventual world #1. This tournament is now wide open for him to make his mark on the tennis world and become a Grand Slam champion.
Alcaraz can press the backhand to backhand advantage. Also, his experience in big matches will come through. Alcaraz is not rattled when things don't go his way. His all-around game will be on display tonight and will end what has been a fantastic story for the upstart American.
Following the ATP odds, our bet for tonight's men's US Open semifinal is Carlos Alcaraz -3.5 games.
ATP Pick: Carlos Alcaraz -3.5 Games (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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