Tennis Pick: Novak Djokovic (-130) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
The Australian Open begins next week and there have been plenty of changes in the odds since the season has begun. Let’s take a look at these ATP odds, where they moved, and find winning tennis picks.
Tennis fans looking to make some Australian Open bets can do so at any of these US Sports Betting Sites.
Novak Djokovic (-130)
With Carlos Alcaraz unable to play in the Australian Open, Novak Djokovic is now an even heavier favorite to win the tournament. This makes sense, he has won the Australian Open nine times. He had won three straight Australian Open titles before being unable to play last year due to controversy around his vaccination status.
Novak Djokovic is arguably the greatest defensive player of all time. He is athletic, but his anticipation is elite. This allows him to track down almost any ball, stay on the point without ceding court position, and take advantage when an opponent makes a mistake. Novak Djokovic is the epitome of a balanced baseliner.
Novak Djokovic is so good there is often a lack of drama around his matches. He is simply better than everyone else. I think he is a great bet to win the Australian Open, even at these current odds.
Daniil Medvedev (+700)
The ATP odds are probably correct that Daniil Medvedev represents the second most likely player to win this tournament. Medvedev has the confidence and moxie to believe he can beat an elite player such as Novak Djokovic. Medvedev has a powerful serve and forehand which should play well on the quick surface here in Australia.
If you want to go for a player other than the heavy favorite, you would not go wrong with Daniil Medvedev. I still have problems seeing him defeat Djokovic on a surface where he has been so excellent, but Medvedev has as good a chance as anyone to upset the all-time great.
Rafael Nadal (+1600)
It shows how good Novak Djokovic is that the defending champion of the tournament is 16 to 1 to defend his title. Nadal was able to come through last year with a favorable draw, and of course, not having to face the previous 3 years’ defending champion.
Still, with questions about his health and another year of play wearing down his body, these odds are correct for Rafael Nadal. Even though he is the defending champ, he is a long shot in this current field.
Nick Kyrgios (+1650)
The mercurial Australian player is definitely worth a shot if you want to take a player at longer odds. Kyrgios has the talent to win a major and had the best showing of his career last year when he made the finals at Wimbledon. At home, he should find favorable conditions for him to excel.
This is probably the second-best bet on the board, because when Kyrgios is on, his serve is unreturnable, and you’re going to have to beat him in the tiebreak. However, I just don’t trust him to stay focused for seven matches straight. Also, when it comes to potentially facing Djokovic, Kyrgios does not have the mental temerity needed to defeat the all-time great.
Taylor Fritz (+2200)
The rising American star has a game that is suited for success here. With his big serve and forehand, he will play well and be tough to beat on the quick courts in Australia. Fritz has also been improving in pressure situations and has shown himself to be a man capable of beating the world’s best players. Taylor Fritz is definitely the most likely American to win the event.
Matteo Berrettini (+3000)
Last year, Berrettini showed that with his big serve, he can make noise in this tournament. Berrettini made it to the Finals last year but was the beneficiary of a favorable draw. Unfortunately, I still don’t trust Berrettini’s backhand for him to win a Grand Slam. ATP opponents are too smart and will pick on his weaker wing. Until Berrettini improves his backhand, I cannot see him winning a Grand Slam tournament.
Hubert Hurkacz (+9000)
If you really want a long shot, Hubert Hurkacz is your guy. Hurkacz has a huge serve and holds over 90% of the time. This can make him a dangerous threat to anyone. He had his best career year in 2022 and does have the game to eventually be a Grand Slam champion. I wouldn’t put too much on it, but it’s hard to argue against a small wager on Hubert Hurkacz at +9000.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.