Presidential Debate Betting Analysis: Who Won the ABC News Debate?

Apparently there are still some undecided voters out there. Or at least there were before Tuesday’s 2024 presidential debate on ABC; it was a great night for Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party, and considerably less so for Donald Trump and the Republican Party.

It took very little time for the 2024 U.S. election betting market (and Taylor Swift!) to respond. Earlier Tuesday morning, Bovada (visit our Bovada Review) had Harris and the Democrats priced at even money to win the presidency; mere minutes after the debate, Harris was back on top at -115, with Trump and the GOP slipping from -120 to -105.

Those are the same politics odds we woke up with Wednesday, so perhaps this will be the extent of the damage for Trump. However, the way the press is talking up what happened at Tuesday’s debate, this could also be the beginning of the end for the Republican campaign.

Did Kamala Harris Win the Debate?

That’s the consensus view. Some news outlets, like the Associated Press, chose to let the debate speak for itself; others, like The New York Times, couched their headlines in both-siderism (“Pundits Said Harris Won the Debate. Undecided Voters Weren’t So Sure”).

Otherwise, it’s a clean sweep for Harris and the Dems:

• “Harris won the debate — and it wasn’t close” – Politico
• “Who won the debate? Harris’ forceful performance rattles a defensive Trump.” – USA Today
• “Who won the debate? Harris goads Trump into flustered performance” – BBC News

If you were one of the many who pounced on the debate odds, where Harris was the -270 favorite at Bovada heading into Tuesday’s matchup, the only opinion that matters is the one your chosen online sportsbooks use to determine the winner. In Bovada’s case, that opinion belongs to FiveThirtyEight; they have yet to officially weigh in at press time, but it would indeed be a shock of Olympic boxing proportions if they declared Trump the victor.

What Happened at the Debate?

Probably the most shocking moment of the entire night was when Harris shook Trump’s hand before the debate. I did not see that coming. But everything afterward was fairly predictable; Harris maintained her prosecutorial stance, hammering Trump on abortion and January 6 while also taking time to troll the former president about the size of his rallies.

Trump took the bait, too. He was relatively composed at the start, but it didn’t take long for Harris’s needles to strike a nerve. And if there’s one moment that people will take away from Tuesday’s debate, it’s when Trump repeated the claims coming out of Springfield, Ohio that Haitian immigrants are stealing people’s pets and eating them. Harris got a good chuckle out of that.

What About Those Undecided Voters?

The New York Times has been criticized for shaping the news in a way that helps Trump – and not just when it comes to their Opinion section. The headline quoted above is for a story that says undecided voters didn’t get any concrete information Tuesday night about specific policies and plans, even if they did find Harris more presidential.

Compare and contrast to The Washington Post, which ran with “Who won the Harris-Trump debate? We asked swing-state voters.” Their survey of 25 uncommitted voters had 23 of them declaring Harris the winner, many of whom were leaning toward Trump and the Republicans before the debate.

Here’s how the voting intentions of this small sample size were changed by Tuesday’s events:

• Definitely Harris: 5 (up from 0)
• Probably Harris: 10 (12)
• Neither: 3 (3)
• Probably Trump: 6 (10)
• Definitely Trump: 0 (0)
• Third Party: 1 (0)

Both of these reports can be true at the same time. But if you’re betting on the U.S. election, this story by the Post is a real eye-opener. Trump and the GOP were slim -115 favorites at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) last week to win Pennsylvania, the site of Tuesday’s debate; at press time, Harris and the Dems are -130 in what could be the pivotal swing state in this election. Bet accordingly.

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