We’ve mentioned once or twice in this space that the election betting market leans Republican. If you needed any more proof, check out the political odds at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review), specifically the Electoral College Votes prop; as we go to press, you can bet on how many seats the Republicans will win, but not the Democratic Party.
You’re not really losing out if you’re betting on Kamala Harris and the Democrats: just take 538, and subtract the number of seats you think the Dems will win. That leaves the rest for Donald Trump and the GOP, since there’s a near-zero chance any third parties will claim a seat this November.
If you’re among the majority – whatever size that might be – who wants to throw some money at Republican election bets, you can skip the elementary math and go straight to the Electoral College odds, which look like this at press time:
| Seats | Odds |
|---|---|
| 270-299 | +250 |
| 240-269 | +275 |
| 210-239 | +325 |
| 300-329 | +325 |
| Under 210 | +600 |
| Over 330 | +1000 |
Whichever way you’re going to bet (or vote), you can tell it’s probably going to be a close race. It takes a minimum of 270 electoral votes to win the election; as you’re probably aware by now, if Harris takes the three “Blue Wall” swing states, and Trump sweeps the four “Sun Belt” states, that leaves Harris and the Dems with exactly 270 – provided the remaining states and districts vote as expected.
Is Trump Winning?
You’d think so just from looking at the 2024 U.S. Election odds. Of all the choices listed above, the one with the shortest odds is Trump and the GOP claiming a narrow victory – except BetOnline has Trump and Harris tied at –110 to win the presidency, and Harris has an easier path to 270 than Trump does.
Given the situation on the ground, the betting value might be with the second choice on the list. If Harris and the Democrats sweep the Blue Wall, there’s a good chance they’ll claim at least one of the Sun Belt states – probably Nevada, where the Dems are –130 favorites at press time. That would be another six electoral votes for Harris, leaving the GOP with 262.
We’ve still got 22 seats of wiggle room to work with. That’s enough room for any one of these three remaining Sun Belt states (with their Democratic odds and number of electoral seats included) to turn blue:
- Arizona (11) +175
- North Carolina (16) +135
- Georgia (16) +175
For the most part, these Sun Belt odds have been creeping towards Trump since the Republicans went hard on the “Haitians eating cats” meme, starting with that debate loss to Harris on September 10. North Carolina is closer than the others because of that “Black Nazi” scandal with GOP gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson; otherwise, we’d be talking even more about the possibility of a 270-268 victory for the Democrats.
Best 2024 U.S. Election Betting Sites
These betting sites are your best bet for betting on the next U.S. President. Each one of these offers a variety of political betting markets, including prop bets and odds on senate races.
| SPORTSBOOK | TRUST SCORE | ONLINE SINCE | Expert Review | BONUS | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
1996
|
$500 Cash Bonus
|
|||
|
|
2011
|
$750 Cash Bonus
|
|||
|
|
2001
|
100% Free Play
|
|||
|
|
2002
|
55% Cash Bonus
|
|||
|
|
2001
|
$250 Free Bet
|
|||
|
|
1996
|
$500 Cash Bonus
|
What Are the Rules?
Because this election figures to be so close – and because of what happened on January 6, 2020 – there’s plenty of concern about how the Electoral College will handle business this November. However, if you’re hammering the Electoral College props, BetOnline has just one rule listed underneath this wager:
“Official results settled as per Associated Press, New York Times, NBC.”
There are other, more general election betting rules you need to follow – always read the fine print at your preferred online sportsbook(s) before putting any money down. But as you can see, it will be the press who determines the winner of this bet.
Which presents an interesting conundrum. Could we end up with a situation like Venezuela, where Nicolas Maduro has declared himself the winner of their July 28 election even though the voting tally sheets (as verified by independent election experts) show the opposition winning handily?
Maybe. There weren’t nearly as many Electoral College shenanigans in 2020 as there were in 2016, where “faithless electors” helped the Republican cause. Still, there were all sorts of other shenanigans, so yes, it can happen here. Let’s hope the winners of both the election and the Electoral College Votes prop are easy to figure out come November 5.
U.S. Election Odds – Next President
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
