Are you one of the thousands of bettors waiting to see if Donald Trump will be found guilty in any of the four cases that were brought against him last August? Did you bet “Yes” on the so-called Florida indictment (the one regarding Trump’s handling of classified documents at Mar-a-Lago), only to throw your hands up when Judge Aileen Cannon dismissed the case?
Don’t despair: Trump has just been re-indicted. On Tuesday, special counsel Jack Smith filed a “superseding” indictment, one that takes into account the U.S. Supreme Court’s recent ruling that presidents enjoy a certain level of immunity from prosecution.
It might be too little, too late if you’re hoping to cash in. Depending on the rules of the wager at your participating politics betting site, that guilty verdict may have to come in before the end of 2024 – and that’s almost certainly not going to happen at this point.
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Smith’s filing could have other implications for politics betting. The fine folks at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) don’t have any Trump trial odds at press time; it’s possible we won’t see anything on the board until after the 2024 U.S. presidential election wraps up November 5 – or whenever they manage to finalize the vote tally.
Having said that, the more momentum Kamala Harris gains in this election, the more likely it is that Trump will face justice. Harris is now the -120 favorite at BetOnline as I write this, with Trump at even money and “Any Other” a surprisingly short +1600.
Let’s take a moment to break down Tuesday’s filing and see if we can get a jump on the politics odds should the Florida case return to the courtroom.
Is The Florida Trial Back On?
Not officially. Trump remains charged in all four of those cases we just mentioned; however, United States of America v. Donald J. Trump, Waltine Nauta, and Carlos De Oliveira won’t return to the District Court for the Southern District of Florida unless Smith wins his appeal of Cannon’s ruling to dismiss.
For that to happen, the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals has to rule that Cannon was incorrect when she determined that Smith wasn’t eligible to be appointed as special counsel, since he was neither appointed by President Joe Biden nor confirmed by Congress.
They just might. Cannon’s decision was considered unusual at the time; Smith’s 81-page appeal cites previous court rulings that the U.S. Attorney General was “statutorily authorized” to appoint a special counsel – the AG in this case being Merrick Garland. Appointments like this stretch all the way back to the 1850s.
What Happens Next?
Trump and his team now have 30 days to respond. Their legal strategy up to this point suggests they’ll take the full month, then call the case a witch hunt and demand it not be heard again.
Because Smith did not request for “expedited treatment” of his appeal, it will probably take several months before the three judges on the panel deliver their ruling. That means sometime beyond November 5, which means it’s even money that Trump could already be president-elect, or even president, before they’ve had a chance to make their decision.
If Harris is elected instead, the wheels of justice will continue to turn. The panel in question has already reversed one of Cannon’s rulings in this case; according to blogger and former U.S. Attorney Joyce Vance, the “smart money” says it will happen again. And if this case does go back to trial, the evidence against Trump is, well, highly evident.
Trump still has plenty of escape routes in front of him. He’s already been granted a level of immunity by the Supreme Court, which has forced the prosecutors behind Trump’s other remaining indictments to narrow their focus. The Supremes, split 6-3 along ideological lines, could simply continue to rule in Trump’s favor every time his appeals reach their doorstep. Bet accordingly.
