The NFL has seen an influx of talent at the quarterback position over the past few seasons. Now more than ever, you need a quarterback with a strong arm if you want to win a Super Bowl. Thankfully, many teams have just that.
Advanced metrics can be used to determine offensive success, but the simplicity of calculating passing yards can’t be overlooked. At the end of the day, quarterbacks who throw for more yards are likelier to put their teams in a position to win.
There are other factors that play into it, but the quarterback has to move the ball downfield if they want to score points and win games.
So, who will lead the NFL in passing yards this season? Here are some of the candidates and an NFL futures pick. All odds come from BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review).
Favorite to Lead the NFL in Passing Yards
Justin Herbert (+750)
It is easy to see why Herbert is near the top of this list. In his second season with the Chargers, Herbert was second in the NFL in passing yardage behind Tom Brady. These two players were the only two who threw for at least 5000 yards.
The Chargers invested in the offensive line, and they brought back Mike Williams. Los Angeles follows analytics more than any team in the NFL, so Herbert will be given plenty of chances to make plays and extend drives.
Herbert is a great quarterback with a strong arm. He is durable, which is important when you are looking at total passing yards. It is almost impossible to win this award if you miss a game, so betting on a player with no injury history is useful.
The AFC West is the toughest division in the NFL, so the Chargers will be looking to Herbert in hopes of him winning games for the team. With a better offensive line and a competent defense, expect great things from Los Angeles.
Players to Fade
Tom Brady
The last player to lead the NFL in passing yards for two straight years was Drew Brees in 2015. Because of that, I don’t see Tom Brady (+800) as a great bet.
Brady is a year older and now has a defensive head coach. Leftwich will have his say in offensive execution, but you can’t expect more from the Bucs than what they got last year. In fact, Brady’s numbers could simply decline because the Bucs will be running the ball in blowout wins against divisional opponents.
Brady doesn’t need to chase any records, so don’t look for him to pad his stats with passing yards. The Bucs should win the NFC South, but not because Brady throws for over 5300 yards again.
Patrick Mahomes
Believe it or not, Patrick Mahomes has never led the NFL in passing yards. Between injuries and the fact that the Chiefs rarely have a reason to compete at the end of the regular season, Mahomes hasn’t had full seasons filled with earth-shattering passing numbers.
He can make any play on the field, but he hasn’t thrown for more than 5000 yards since his MVP season. Even then, Big Ben had more passing yards than Mahomes.
I don’t see that changing in the toughest division in the NFL after losing Tyreek Hill, the fastest player in football. The Chiefs will be great, but Mahomes won’t lead the NFL in passing yards.
NFL Futures Pick: Who Will Lead the NFL in Passing Yards?
I have two players who I believe will lead the NFL in passing yards. Both have the same value at +1000, and both will tear up the AFC this year. My best value picks are Josh Allen and Joe Burrow.
Josh Allen
- Allen was eighth on the list last year, but he hit his stride in the second half of the season.
- The division got easier with the Patriots losing key defensive players, and Allen will likely play in multiple shootouts in the regular season.
NFL Futures Pick: Josh Allen to Lead the NFL in Passing Yards (+1000) at BetOnline
Joe Burrow
- Burrow is my favorite pick to win this bet because of his improved offensive line.
- He had one of the highest sack rates last year, so an improved offensive line will give him more chances to take deep shots down the field.
- If he stays healthy, he will be close to 5000 passing yards by the end of the year.
NFL Futures Pick: Joe Burrow to Lead the NFL in Passing Yards (+1000) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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