And then there were two. Kansas City and Philadelphia will meet at Super Bowl LVII in Glendale, bucking the Conference Championships betting trends by both winning and covering last Sunday as the favorites. But as we said last week, those trends didn’t really matter this year with all the Final Four teams performing at roughly the same level – Kansas City even flipped from favorite to underdog and back again.
That flipping happened because of Patrick Mahomes and his sprained right ankle. Can we exploit that injury once more and get some early value for our NFL picks? Are there any other injuries or Super Bowl betting trends of note? Of course, there are, so get a head start for your NFL picks with these key trends and injuries.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, February 12, 2023 – 06:30 PM EST at State Farm Stadium
KC Accidental
While Mahomes didn’t seem to be overly limited by that ankle injury, he’s running out of healthy targets to throw at. All four of these wideouts are in the sick bay:
- Kadarius Toney (ankle)
- Mecole Hardman (pelvis)
- JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee)
- Justin Watson (illness)
The first three players on this list were all hurt during their AFC title win over the Cincinnati Bengals; Watson missed the game entirely. It looked for a while like Kansas City were toast, but Mahomes simply spread those targets around to his tight ends – and to Skyy Moore, their No. 5-6 receiver.
Head coach Andy Reid had zero status updates for these players during Monday’s videoconference, so we don’t have much to work with here, but it’s possible that Kansas City has value as 2-point underdogs on the NFL odds board at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review), just like they did when the Mahomes injury news moved the football lines heading into the Conference Championships.
Sneed’s Feed & Seed
The bigger injury news out of Kansas City might end up being CB L’Jarius Sneed and the concussion he suffered last Sunday. Sneed is in league protocol now; he started every game this year, one of the few bright spots on a defense that ranks No. 17 overall (No. 20 pass, No. 15 rush) on the DVOA charts at Football Outsiders.
Once again, this might be a giant nothingburger. Cornerbacks, like wide receivers, are somewhat fungible commodities and easily replaced; Sneed also has that extra week between games to clear protocol. There are no injuries of note on the Eagles' side of things, so if we’re going to gain an early edge on this injury news, it’ll be with K.C.
It’s Always the Underdog and the Under
Are you ready for some Super Bowl trends??? The Big Game is where we get maximum participation from casual bettors, who can usually be counted on to pound both the favorites and the Under for Super Bowl Sunday. If you had the classic underdog-Under 2-team parlay last year, you were a winner – and the year before that, too.
To be fair, it doesn’t always work out this way. Underdogs are 10-4 ATS in the last 14 Super Bowls that weren’t a pick’em, and the Under is on an 11-7 run, including each of the last four games. But they don’t always meet at the pay window; the underdog-Under parlay has “only” cashed in six times during the last 14 non-PK Super Bowls. That’s still plenty enough for a profit at your standard +264 “true odds” payout.
The Total Is Too Damn High
Or at least it was when it opened at 50 points. The Under is a tasty 9-3 in the last dozen Super Bowls with totals in the 50s; some Missouri and Pennsylvania betting sites have already moved their total down to 49.5 in early action, with the consensus reports showing 54% of early bettors on the Under.
In the real world, that half-point difference won’t automatically render this trend moot. But even at 50 points, we’re at the “dumb end” of this trend, with the lowest possible qualifying total. Don’t be mashing that Refresh button and praying to see 50 just so you can unload the clip.
Philly No. 1
Finally, here’s a trend that’s sure to cause some ripples in the betting market: The Eagles are on a 7-0 ATS playoff streak as the No. 1 seed in the NFC. What what?! It’s a fact. That’s two games so far this year, all three at the end of the 2017 season (as underdogs, with QB Nick Foles replacing the injured Carson Wentz), and both the Conference Championships and Super Bowl XXXIX in 2004-05.
Maybe there’s something in the cream cheese after all; bet accordingly, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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