We continue our ongoing look at the NFL odds for the Super Bowl. For this article we take a deeper look at the line moves for the side and total and explain what they mean up to this point.
Don’t forget that you can make your Super Bowl LVII bets at the top-rated Missouri and Pennsylvania betting sites.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, February 12, 2023 – 06:30 PM EST at State Farm Stadium
Point Spread Line Movement
The original opening line had Kansas City favored by -1.5 or -1. Once the AFC Championship game was completed, there was an “official” line, which had Philadelphia favored at -2.5. This number took into consideration that Patrick Mahomes was again limping from his ankle injury and a few wide receivers and defensive backs left and didn’t return versus Cincinnati.
Most football bettors not drinking the green kool-aid (Eagles fans) presumed once word emerged that Mahomes was in good shape to go and the others that were injured would recover, the number would fall for Philly and that is what has occurred. As of Thursday morning, Philadelphia is at -1.5 and the heavy volume of betting on the Super Bowl and the props will kick in starting now.
What Does the ATS Line Movement Tell Us About Bettors?
After Philadelphia bashed two NFC playoff foes and Kansas City limped (an intentional play on words) by their two postseason foes, sportsbooks who were reporting tickets had a rush of Eagles bets in the 70-75 percent range, as they looked like the superior team.
Since that opening foray, Chiefs money has outpaced Philly money. Every available sportsbook now has Philadelphia below 65% and about 40% of wagering outlets have the green-clad Eagles now in the upper 50s.
Though betting sites have reported some of the biggest bets mostly on Philadelphia, all money being bet is finding it almost split evenly with a few leaning to K.C. with cash collected thus far.
This is what typically happens, bettors make their NFL picks based on what they just saw, which was the Eagles in this case. After bettors start breaking a single contest down and have a better understanding of the matchups, often the underdog with points becomes more attractive.
Totals Line Movement
The total was sent out at 49 points and largely held that position until later last week when a few 49.5 began to pop up. Over the last week, sharp action began to emerge as these bettors felt the total would be higher by game time and wanted the value now and were placing bets on the OVER. As of Monday morning the total climbed to 50, and later in the day up to 51.
In the regular season, Kansas City was the top-scoring team in the NFL at 29.2 points per game and Philadelphia was the best in the NFC and third overall at 28.1 PPG. With Mahomes presumably healthy, skeptics point to three of the four best quarterbacks the Eagles faced, they gave up 33 points to Jared Goff (Lions), 33 to Aaron Rodgers (Packers), and 40 to Dak Prescott (Cowboys).
Clearly, Mahomes is better than any of those three this year and he has more diversified artillery and Andy Reid as the head coach.
What Does the Total Line Movement Tell Us About Bettors?
Bets being placed are favoring the OVER at a rate in the low 60s percent range. However, with this rise, contrarian bettors are speculating the total might be headed too high, and little past half the cash is backing the UNDER.
Like the side, it is a matter of how a person sees the game playing out and what the final numbers are closer to game time will provide a clearer picture of where the outcome may land.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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