NFL Prop Pick: Haason Reddick to Win Super Bowl MVP (+5000) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
When the NFL’s 2022 MVP award is announced just before Super Bowl LVII, it is expected that Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes will easily win the award. Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts has a fair shot to finish as the runner-up to Mahomes.
But when the two square off in Arizona, neither is guaranteed to win Super Bowl MVP, an award that has much more positional flexibility as it is just about one game where anything can happen.
Still, with 31 of the first 56 (55.4%) Super Bowl MVP awards going to quarterbacks, it is no surprise that Hurts (+110) and Mahomes (+130) are the odds-on favorites for the award at many of the best Pennsylvania and Missouri betting sites.
We are going to go over some of the early favorites to win Super Bowl MVP and which NFL pick offers the best value for this epic matchup of the top offense against the top pass defense.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, February 12, 2023 – 06:30 PM EST at State Farm Stadium
The Front-Runner: Jalen Hurts (+110)
Jalen Hurts is the quarterback of the 2-point favorite Eagles, so naturally, he gets the highest odds for Super Bowl MVP, barely edging out Patrick Mahomes.
Hurts can certainly win this with a big game against the defense that ranks No. 21 in points per drive allowed, but we have to express some caution here. Since Week 15 in Chicago, the game Hurts suffered his shoulder injury, he has thrown two touchdowns and three interceptions in his last four games. That includes three games with zero touchdown passes.
Hurts does have five rushing touchdowns in his last four games, but he has not rushed for 40 yards in any of his last three games. He has passed for just 275 yards in the two playoff games combined as the Eagles have dominated 69-14 on the scoreboard.
The X-Factor in the Game
We know the Chiefs lost their last Super Bowl 31-9, but something tells me they will put up a better fight this time. This Philadelphia team almost lost to Jeff Saturday and the Colts in Week 11. They are not unbeatable.
Hurts averaged 4.84 yards per pass against the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game and still won by 24 points because the 49ers had no quarterback who could throw. If he plays that poorly again, the Chiefs have a good shot to win this game because we know Mahomes will do his thing as he has an offensive line this time around.
Mahomes is going to get all the buzz, but Hurts might be the X-factor in the game. If he plays well, the Eagles are almost surely going to win this game, but the question will be if he gets overshadowed by his great defense a la Russell Wilson when he won a Super Bowl with the 2013 Seahawks. The MVP went to a linebacker (Malcolm Smith) who caught a pick-six thanks to the pass rush hitting Peyton Manning in motion.
But Hurts will have two weeks to rest his shoulder for this one, so Mahomes is not the only quarterback looking forward to this bye week and healing time to get ready for this game.
The Real MVP: Patrick Mahomes (+130)
There are very few games this season where the Chiefs won, and someone not named Patrick Mahomes would have won an MVP award for the performance. The Chiefs are just not built that way, which is why Mahomes is likely going to run away with regular-season MVP after receiving 49 of the 50 votes for first-team All-Pro quarterback.
No NFL running back has won Super Bowl MVP since Terrell Davis for the 1998 Broncos. The Chiefs have one game all season from a running back who rushed for at least 70 yards and scored at least one touchdown, which would be the bare minimum to even get in the conversation. It is not happening here.
But, in a way, the NFL odds are against Mahomes successfully carrying this team while not 100% healthy against a great defense that gets after the quarterback. There are also these two facts:
- No player has won MVP and Super Bowl MVP in the same season since Kurt Warner for the 1999 Rams.
- No quarterback has ever led the NFL in passing yards and won the Super Bowl that season (0-for-56).
Mahomes led the NFL with 5,250 passing yards this season, so he would be the first 5,000-yard passer to win a Super Bowl.
If anyone can make history like this, it is Mahomes, and he will have the full narrative power behind him in overcoming his injury and the injuries to the other skill players on the Chiefs as they take on this Philadelphia team that has lost one game with Hurts at quarterback this year.
The Kelce Brother People Will Vote For: Travis Kelce (+1200)
For as great as center Jason Kelce has been for the Eagles, no offensive lineman has ever won Super Bowl MVP, and that will continue this year. However, it is also true that no tight end has ever won Super Bowl MVP (not even Rob Gronkowski).
So, that is something Jason’s brother Travis Kelce can set his eyes on in this one. Kelce had 43 yards and a touchdown when the Chiefs beat the 49ers in Super Bowl LIV. Mahomes had no problem winning MVP that night.
That remains Kelce’s biggest hurdle. How does he overshadow his quarterback and help the Chiefs win this game? If there were two games this year where Kelce would have been named MVP, they probably would have been against the Chargers (Week 11) and Jaguars (divisional round). One of those involved Mahomes getting injured and missing a quarter, so that would not be ideal for the Chiefs here.
The other was a game where Kelce had 115 yards and three touchdowns, including the game-winner with 31 seconds left that was mostly YAC. That is the kind of effort it would likely take to overtake Mahomes for the award. Kelce would likely need to catch all of Mahomes’ touchdowns to make sure the quarterback does not get the award over him.
Not that either care who gets it if it results in a Kansas City victory. However, it may be worth noting that Kelce only had 23 yards against the Eagles last season, tied for his second-fewest yards in a game with Mahomes as his quarterback.
The Trade of the Year: A.J. Brown (+1200)
Wide receiver A.J. Brown had a fantastic regular season for the Eagles after being traded from the Titans in a surprise movie back in April. But in the playoffs, the Eagles have rarely had to throw much, and Brown has 50 yards in two games combined.
He only had one game under 30 yards all season before doing it in each of the two playoff wins. Maybe he is not 100% healthy, but Hurts’ passes were just off to Brown against the 49ers, who had the top-ranked defense this year.
The Chiefs are less stellar on defense, and several No. 1 receiving options have attacked them for good stat lines this year:
- Stefon Diggs (Bills): 148 yards, touchdown
- Davante Adams (Raiders): 124 yards, 2 touchdowns (Week 5), and 73 yards (Week 18)
- Mike Williams (Chargers): 113 yards, touchdown
- Christian Kirk (Jaguars): 105 yards, 2 touchdowns
- Mike Evans (Buccaneers): 103 yards, 2 touchdowns
- Jerry Jeudy (Broncos): 73 yards, 3 touchdowns
Winning Super Bowl MVP is always tricky for a wide receiver because you almost need the quarterback to stink when throwing to other targets. That way you can look a lot better and get the full share of touchdowns and credit.
One thing that could help Brown is the injury to Kansas City corner L’Jarius Sneed, their best coverage player.
The Von Miller Method: Haason Reddick (+5000)
Reddick has been a fantastic addition to the roster this year as he made his first Pro Bowl with a career-high 16 sacks. It was his third season in a row with a different team where he notched at least 11 sacks after doing so with the 2020 Cardinals (12.5 sacks) and 2021 Panthers (11 sacks).
If they gave out an MVP award for the Conference Championship Games, then Reddick likely would have won it for the Eagles against the 49ers after two quick sacks knocked Brock Purdy’s arm out of the game. He literally ruined the game for the 49ers with his speed and pass rush.
Reddick has five games with multiple sacks this year, and he even forced a fumble in all but one of them. He can have the kind of impact we saw Von Miller have in Super Bowl 50 against Carolina for Denver when his pressures forced Cam Newton to fumble for a touchdown and then again with the game on the line in the fourth quarter.
Miller is still the only defensive player to win Super Bowl MVP in the last eight seasons. Perhaps Reddick can be the latest to join that exclusive group and put the cherry on top for a defensive unit that notched 70 sacks in the regular season.
The Chiefs’ Best Defender: Chris Jones (+5000)
Same argument as Reddick, Chris Jones is the premiere pass rusher on the Chiefs after tying his career high with 15.5 sacks this season. But the big news was that Jones finally notched his first playoff sacks in his 14th playoff game against the Bengals in the AFC Championship Game.
Both plays were very timely too as Jones had an early third-down sack, then put Joe Burrow down on a crucial third down late in the game when it looked like the Bengals could drive for a game-winning field goal.
It was hard to believe Jones had zero sacks in 13 playoff games, but he made sure to deliver in a huge moment for his team last week. However, the Eagles have a much better offensive line than the Bengals, who were down three starters.
Hurts also does not take many sacks. He took six sacks in his second start in 2020, then has just taken four sacks in a game three more times since. The opportunities are just not going to be there as much for Jones in this matchup as they were in the Cincinnati game.
Hurts also rarely throws interceptions, so it is hard to see much value in anyone from Kansas City’s defensive unit winning MVP in this game. That also means they would have to overshadow Mahomes in winning the game.
Chiefs vs. Eagles: Super Bowl MVP Picks
We know the MVP award will go to the winner of the game like it has in 55 of the 56 Super Bowls before this one.
If you like the Chiefs to win, then it is hard to bet on anyone but Mahomes, who has everything from the experience of doing this before to often being the main reason his team wins games. Doing this on the ankle injury against the defense with 70 sacks is just the narrative clincher he needs to win this award even if he does not have the most fantastic game statistically.
The Eagles have many more options, and it could be a mess to sort through as they love giving multiple backs touches and scoring opportunities from Miles Sanders to Boston Scott to Kenneth Gainwell.
With the passing game not totally in sync in recent weeks, it could be the defensive player who dominates with sacks or a late forced fumble, which is how the Eagles clinched their last Super Bowl win when Brandon Graham forced Tom Brady to fumble in Super Bowl LII. But quarterback Nick Foles had a stellar game and claimed that MVP award.
Reddick is a dark horse but he has great value as he can wreck this game as a pass rusher and be the star again for the Eagles. At the end of the day, this game could just show why Mahomes won regular-season MVP and why the Eagles win the Super Bowl because they have the better roster when you set aside the quarterbacks.
NFL Prop Pick: Haason Reddick to Win Super Bowl MVP (+5000) at Bovada
NFL Prop Pick: Patrick Mahomes to Win Super Bowl MVP (+130) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.