NFL Best Bets Today – Top Picks & Predictions for Week 1
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Frank Ammirante
- Last Updated: April 23, 2024
NFL Best Bets for Week 1
Looking for the top NFL bets this week? Our expert picks cut through the noise to deliver high-confidence spreads, totals, and moneyline predictions. Updated weekly during the season, these best bets are backed by data, matchup insights, and sharp line value.
Read on to find out our best bets for the upcoming week of the 2025 NFL season.
Pick #1: Atlanta Falcons Moneyline (+105 at BetOnline) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Falcons are poised to dethrone the Buccaneers for the NFC South division title this year. The upgrade at quarterback from an injured Kirk Cousins to gunslinging Michael Penix Jr. is going to make this offense more explosive. I like taking the Falcons as home underdogs against an undermanned Bucs team that will be playing without All-Pro offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs.
Pick #2: Miami Dolphins/Indianapolis Colts Under 46.5 Points (-110 at Bovada)
There are major question marks with both the Dolphins and Colts coming into this season. Miami has significant concerns in pass protection, so it remains to be seen whether last year’s broken offense shows any improvement. Meanwhile, the Colts have erratic quarterback play with either Daniel Jones or Anthony Richardson under center. This makes under 46.5 points the safer bet in Week 1.
Pick #3: Arizona Cardinals -6 Point Spread (-110 at BetOnline) at New Orleans Saints
The Cardinals have continuity throughout their roster, with the same coaching staff led by Jonathan Gannon. On the other hand, the Saints are likely starting rookie Tyler Shough at quarterback in Kellen Moore’s debut as a head coach. The Saints are projected to be among the worst teams in the NFL this year, so bet on Kyler Murray and the Cardinals to beat them by more than six points in Week 1.
Top Sportsbook for NFL Best Bets
I’ve played at several betting sites over the years, but these are the ones that stand out for NFL best bets.
Read more about the best NFL betting sites in the industry.
1. BookMaker: Best for High Limit NFL Bettors
2. BetOnline - Best Overall NFL Betting Experience
3. Heritage Sports: Best for Elite Customer Service
4. Bovada: Best for Prop Bets
5. BetAnySports: Best for Reduced Juice NFL Lines
Why These Are the Best Bets This Week
Falcons moneyline, Dolphins/Colts under, and Cardinals point spread are the best bets this week for the following reasons:
- The Bucs are missing one of the best players, giving the Falcons a clear edge.
- Atlanta also has home-field advantage, and we’re getting them at plus money.
- The Dolphins could struggle on offense due to porous pass protection.
- Indianapolis may have a tough time moving the ball due to erratic quarterback play.
- The Cardinals are poised for a tone-setting Week 1 win vs. an inferior opponent.
- New Orleans will be starting a rookie quarterback with a first-year head coach.
NFL Best Bets Record
You can find our up-to-date NFL best bet record in this section. This will include an overall record that is also broken down into categories: moneylines, over/unders, and point spreads. The record will be updated once the NFL season starts.
What Makes a Bet a “Best Bet”?
A best bet is a high-confidence, data-backed wager, not a longshot or gimmick. These picks are typically focused on point spreads, game totals (over/unders), or moneyline predictions. We’re focusing on picks where the edge is supported by matchup analysis, injury reports, line movement, and market value.
Unlike props or parlays, which often carry higher variance and lower win probability, best bets are selected for their consistency and expected value. They’re designed to deliver sustainable profits over time, not just occasional big payouts.
Think of a best bet as the smartest play on the board, one that is grounded in research, not emotion or public hype.
NFL Best Bets vs Parlays and Props
Not all NFL bets are created equal. Here’s how best bets differ from parlays and player props, especially in terms of risk, reward, and use case:
Best Bets
- Definition: High-confidence wagers backed by data, research, and market value.
- Typical Bet Types: Point spreads, game totals (Over/Under), and moneylines.
- Risk Level: Lower
- Reward Profile: Steady, sustainable wins over time.
- Ideal For: Bettors who value consistency, closing line value (CLV), and sharp betting strategy.
A best bet is focused on numbers, matchups, and expected value, not hype or gut feelings.
Parlays
- Definition: A combo bet that links multiple picks together (e.g., 3+ legs). All picks must win to cash.
- Risk Level: High
- Reward Profile: Large payouts, but much lower win probability.
- Use Case: Casual betting, longshot payouts, or fun bets around prime-time games.
Parlays can offer big wins, but they’re much harder to hit. Use them sparingly or for entertainment value.
Props
- Definition: Bets on player or game-specific outcomes (e.g., “Will Patrick Mahomes throw 3+ TDs?”).
- Risk Level: Medium
- Reward Profile: Depends on matchup, line value, and player usage.
- Use Case: Fantasy-minded bettors, niche edge seekers, or specific player matchups.
Props are great for exploiting player trends, but require deep knowledge of usage, roles, and game script.
Expert Tips for Making the Best NFL Bets
- Shop NFL odds across sportsbooks
Always compare NFL odds before placing a wager. Even a small shift in the point spread or total can impact your long-term ROI. Use live odds tools to find the best number, especially when betting on an underdog. - Monitor injuries and weather before betting
Key injuries (especially to QBs or offensive linemen) can affect the handle and betting market. Also, check for weather reports that might limit scoring, which can impact Over/Under markets. - Fade the public on inflated spreads
When the public heavily bets one side, the line movement may favor the opposite. These overreactions can create value against the spread (ATS) on the less popular team. - Follow sharp line movement and closing lines
Late-week line movement often signals sharp money. If a team moves from –2.5 to –3.5, it’s worth investigating. Monitoring the closing line helps confirm where smart bettors are leaning. - Stick to unit sizing for bankroll discipline
Manage risk by betting 1–2% of your bankroll per pick. This avoids overexposure and helps you survive cold streaks, even when your best bet doesn’t cover the point spread.
NFL Betting Tools & Resources
Here is a list of our NFL betting tools and resources to guide you to a profitable season while helping you choose the sportsbook that’s right for you:
Final Verdict
For each bet type, it’s important to manage your bankroll, understand the risk profile, and stick to a strategy that matches your goals. You never want to risk too much of your funds on a single wager, nor do you want to place too many parlays. Combine straight bets with parlays, research the matchup to make an informed decision, and never bet on emotion.
NFL Best Bets FAQS
What is the best NFL bet to make this week?
Our NFL best bets are updated each week, based on expert modeling and matchup data. This may also include line movement, weather conditions, and recent performance.
Are these NFL picks free?
Yes, our best bets are published weekly and available to all readers at no charge.
Do these picks include props or parlays?
No, props and parlays are covered on separate dedicated pages. Best bets focus on spreads, totals, and moneylines.
