The US legal online gambling industry, which includes sports betting and online casinos has been a runaway train since the US Supreme Court overturned its blanket ban on betting across the nation in 2018. With what many feel is an unforeseen pace of exponential growth has come a need to step back and re-evaluate just where analysts feel the online gambling industry could be by 2025.
Online gambling growth has been remarkable. New markets are coming on board at an incredible pace, new operators are looking to penetrate the US scene and 111 million Americans are now able to place a legal wager from the comfort of their homes. It has been 21st century gold rush for the increasingly mainstreamed legal betting industry.
Some Adjusted Numbers
A new report on where analysts think the US legal sports betting industry could be by 2025 comes from the Wall Street Journal and J.P. Morgan analyst, Joseph Greff. His analysis and conclusions have the projections for the industry one-third higher than the previously expected numbers.
Analysts, when discussing the potential of the online gambling space have been using the $12.2 billion figure for gross gaming revenues by the time 2025 ends. That number, according to the Wall Street Journal report could swell to $19.3 billion – a 33% increase over the previous projections.
Sports betting is expected to see the biggest jump according to the new projections – from the previous expectation of $7.6 billion to the new figure of $11.5 billion. iGaming projections increase from $4.6 billion to $7.8 billion by 2025 in the newest model.
According to Greff, the rationale for the increased projections starts with 2021 and the 9 new jurisdictions coming into the fold. Revenues for the online gambling business were expected to be around $2 billion in 2021 alone – Greff’s report has that number hitting $4.4 billion. iGaming is now expected to generate $3.9 billion in revenues, up from the previous projection of $2.1 billion this year. 2021 revised projections are now $8.3 billion for the industry, up from the previous expectations of $6.6 billion in previous reports.
Projections are projections. The new numbers come from another projections of 35 legal sports betting markets participating in the US legal online betting industry by 2025. There are 25 states plus Washington DC contributing now with Maryland and Connecticut on the verge and Arizona and Wyoming already contributing.
Nine states have come into the fold just in 2021 and as many as four more may be live before the end of 2021. Over half of Americans by that time could have the right to place a legal online wager. If California and its 40 million residents gain the right to place a legal wager and either of Florida of Texas get on board, projections for the industry by the year 2025 spike again.
Greff’s projections are also predicated on the amount of competition in the US market. Everyone is in the battle for market share, creating a bettors market that will almost definitely attract a new population of wagering enthusiasts. While difficult to predict just how many users will be active by 2025, you can bet sportsbooks will work hard to make that number as high as possible.
One underrated aspect of the legal gambling industry not often talked about is online casinos. Currently, they are available in just five states – Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, Michigan, and West Virginia. By 2025, that number will be significantly higher and will therefore be a bigger driver of the total revenues for the industry.
The Wall Street Journal report on revised projections for the US legal gambling industry was a necessary step for those that closely follow the exploding scene. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see them revamped again before 2025.
The growth of the US online wagering has opened a lot of eyes in the 2 1/2 years since getting the green light from the Supreme Court. With the mainstreaming almost complete, with new markets coming online and others considering their own platform, and with the impending expansion of online casino options beyond the five states it is live in now, the revised $19.3 billion in revenues by may turn out to be more of a conservative projection than a realistic one.