Keys for North Carolina to Upset Duke in the Final Four

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Caleb Love #2 of the North Carolina Tar Heels dunks the ball. Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images/AFP.

In my lifetime, I can’t remember a Final Four matchup with this much hype going into it. The UNC Tarheels found a way to make the Final Four despite being an 8-seed. They’ll face Duke in New Orleans for a chance at the title game.

This is a matchup between the biggest rivals in the sport, and it is the first time that they’ve ever met in the NCAA Tournament. Adding in the importance of a Final Four victory adds to the hype, but the main piece of coverage will surround Mike Krzyzewski.

Coach K is coaching in his final season, and the Tarheels have a chance to end his career on their terms. However, the odds from BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) have them at +165 to upset the Blue Devils.

The good news for UNC is that they have the blueprint for beating the Blue Devils. After all, they did just that in the final home game of Coach K’s career. Can they do it again? It will be a challenge, but they will be prepared. Here are the three keys to a victory by UNC.

North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Duke Blue Devils

Saturday, April 02, 2022 – 08:49 PM EDT at Caesars Superdome

Don’t Let the Stage Overwhelm You

I hate talking about the gravity of the moment in games like this. You want to stay analytical with sports bets, and both teams know a thing or two about playing on the big stage. However, this is the biggest game of these players’ lives. The season finale between these teams is a drop in the bucket compared to this one.

Competing for a chance to make it to the title game would be enough, but these teams are also competing against rivals for a chance at history. Duke is looking to extend Coach K’s career, and UNC is looking to end it. This game will be talked about in the state of North Carolina for decades, and there is only one chance for these teams to get it right.

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This stage is also big for UNC’s head coach. Hubert Davis has never coached in an NCAA Tournament, and this will be his biggest test. He’s had big shoes to fill all season, and he’s done just that. If he can win this game, he’ll be a legend and cement his status as one of the top coaches in college basketball.

Get To the Free-Throw Line

When you look at the matchup to end the regular season, there isn’t much that kept these teams apart. Both teams had 14 fouls, and neither committed 10 or more turnovers. However, the Tarheels shot 14 more free throws and made 13 of them. That type of margin is hard to overcome, and Duke didn’t do enough on the offensive end to combat it.

Again, both teams only fouled 14 times. So, how is there such a big gap in free throws? It’s because UNC was attacking the basket on offense. They forced Duke to foul, and they took advantage of their shots. Neither team spent much time in the bonus, so UNC got to the line by being aggressive early in each half.

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It’s hard to know how the refs will call this game, but UNC needs to attack early and make the refs set the tone. If they swallow their whistles, then North Carolina will have to regroup. If not, UNC should get to the line early to keep the pressure off their perimeter shooters.

This will also get players into a rhythm while disrupting Duke’s ability to get into a flow. It can make the Blue Devils frustrated, which is another good thing for UNC.

Win It in Clutch Time

While both teams plan to have a comfortable lead towards the end of this game, that is unlikely. Instead, we’ll probably see each team scrambling to get ahead in the final few minutes. This is where Duke won their other games this year, and they are comfortable in clutch time.

UNC needs to respond with clutch moments. We could see all-time NCAA Tournament highlights come from this game, and the players have to be ready to make them. UNC is fundamentally sound, so they should be ready. Still, you have to execute with your one chance to make history.

The Tarheels will literally never face Coach K again. If they want to end with a win, this is how you do it.