The San Diego Padres are currently fighting for an NL Wild Card spot with a little over a month of baseball left on the schedule.
Can Manny Machado help the Padres get past the Dodgers over the weekend? Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the top-rated sportsbooks!
Machado’s San Diego Padres
The San Diego Padres won’t be winning the NL West this season. They’re currently 20 games out of first place in the division. However, San Diego’s weekend series still means a whole lot against the Dodgers.
The Padres are currently sitting at 70-59 on the season and lead the Brewers by 1.5 games for the final MLB pick NL Wild Card spot.
After the Padres traded for Juan Soto, Josh Bell, Josh Hader, and Brandon Drury at the trade deadline, the expectation was for the Padres to earn that first Wild Card spot, but things haven’t gone as planned.
Machado vs. Goldschmidt
For the Padres, Manny Machado has been the most consistent player on the team this year. At one point in the middle of the season, Machado was in the conversation for the NL MVP.
While he’s not going to beat out Paul Goldschmidt, Machado proved earlier this year what he’s capable of. It would be huge if Machado decided to show up against the Dodgers over the weekend.
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Pitchers Machado Will Likely Face vs. Dodgers
If things stand pat, the Padres will take on Julio Urias, Michael Grove, and Andrew Heaney.
Grove was slotted into the rotation after Tony Gonsolin landed on the Injured List earlier this week.
Julio Urias
On Friday, the left-hander, Julio Urias, will get the start. Urias is 14-7 on the season with a 2.32 ERA. He’s been extremely consistent and has a WHIP of .95 on the year, which is the fifth-best number in baseball.
Against San Diego this season, Urias has a 1.80 ERA through one start. He went 5 innings in that game and gave up 2 hits with 1 run. He also struck out 6 and walked 3.
Michael Grove
Meanwhile, Grove should get his second start after pitching well on Monday against the Marlins.
Michael Grove went 4.2 innings against Miami and allowed two runs with 5 hits. He also struck out 4 and walked 1. He has faced 22 batters and has allowed 7 hits along with 7 runs against those 22 batters.
The Padres, including Machado, should be able to get to Grove on Saturday.
Andrew Heaney
Lastly, Andrew Heaney will pitch Sunday’s game against the Padres.
Heaney‘s thrown 41.2 innings on the season and has a 1.94 ERA. An ERA of 1.94 through nine games is really good, but Andrew Heaney has been injured multiple times this year, so he’s not getting talked about much.
Earlier this year, he took on the Padres and allowed no earned runs in 4.2 innings of work. He struck out three and walked one while allowing four hits and three runs that were unearned.
Manny Machado’s Splits
Machado Against Lefties
Machado will have to face two lefties in the three games over the weekend. In the last 30 days, he’s been awful against lefties, hitting a .000 ISO with a wOBA of .229. He’s also struck out 23.5% of the time against lefties in that time frame.
However, Machado has also been a bit unlucky. Against lefties, in the last 30 days, Machado has a .238 BABIP while hitting just 33.3% of grounders and 33.3% of line drives. He’s also walked 14.7% of the time against lefties in his last 34 plate appearances.
If Machado can keep his strikeouts down, his numbers would be better against lefties. Meanwhile, against righties, Machado has raked recently. In his last 94 plate appearances, he has a .414 ISO with a wOBA of .475. He’s limited strikeouts to 20.2% but has only walked 6.4%.
Machado Against Righties
Who needs walks when you’re hitting extra-base hits over 40% of the time against righties? Machado has a BABIP of .393 against righties in the last month, with 30.8% of ground balls hit, and 26.2% of line drives hit.
Machado is hitting harder contact against righties, but ultimately, when he’s making contact against either side, he’s succeeding.
The reality is that he’s hitting the ball in play more against righties.
How Will Machado Perform vs. Dodgers’ Starters?
Machado has been awful against lefties. Julio Urias and Andrew Heaney are two pitchers that have solid strikeout numbers against righties, to begin with. It might be hard finding success against those two lefties.
If Grove is on the mound on Saturday, look for Machado to have a huge night at the dish. If the Padres can work Los Angeles’ starters out of the game early, Machado will take on righties from the bullpen throughout the series. That should help the slugger out a lot.
Dave Roberts will want a righty to face Machado, despite Machado being much better against righties. That’ll be good news for Machado.
Overall, Machado should have a solid series but on Saturday is when he’s going to rake.
Calculators
