2023 MLB Odds Update: Futures Slow to Judge Re-Signing

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Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees looks on after reaching third base in the second inning against the Houston Astros in game four of the American League Championship Series at Yankee Stadium on October 23, 2022 in the Bronx borough of New York City. Elsa/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by ELSA / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

MLB Pick: Yankees Win 2023 World Series (+1000) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Yankees Win 2023 World Series (+1000)
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Aaron Judge chose to re-up with the New York Yankees, but his decision hasn’t had much impact on the 2023 MLB odds board – not yet. 

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We suspected this all along. Never mind that we picked Aaron Judge to sign with the Giants; inertia is a real thing, and really, the onus was on the Giants to pry Judge away from the New York Yankees, free agency notwithstanding. 

In the end, New York’s offer of nine years and $360 million (the same dollar amount the Giants reportedly had on the table) was enough to keep Judge in pinstripes. But it wasn’t enough to change the 2023 World Series odds at Bovada Sportsbook – at least not as we go to press, two days after the news came down that Judge (62 HR, 1.111 OPS) was staying in the Bronx. 

Let’s take a quick look at the top of Bovada’s MLB odds board as things stood in mid-November, before the offseason hot stove had warmed up, and where they stand at press time.

World Series Odds Before Judgement Day 

  • Houston Astros +500 
  • Los Angeles Dodgers +600 
  • Atlanta Braves +800 
  • New York Yankees +900 
  • Toronto Blue Jays +1000 
  • New York Mets +1000 

World Series Odds After Judgement Day 

  • Houston Astros +500 
  • Los Angeles Dodgers +550 
  • Atlanta Braves +900 
  • New York Mets +900 
  • New York Yankees +1000 

So here we have the Yankees falling from +900 to +1000 over the past three weeks. I suppose that makes sense in a vacuum; aside from reliever Tommy Kahnle (3.44 career xFIP), who spent most of 2022 on the Dodgers’ injured list, the only free agents New York have signed this offseason are their own. 

Meanwhile, other contending teams have been busy signing up new talent, with the frenzy reaching a pitch at the winter meetings in San Diego. We’ll get to that in a moment, but first: San Francisco’s World Series odds have risen from +3500 to +2200 during this three-week span. 

Has the Betting Market Fallen Asleep at the Switch? 

Perhaps. It’s not the fine folks at Bovada; check out the MLB futures page here at Bookmakers Review, and you’ll see that Bovada’s World Series odds are right there with the other sportsbooks on the board. 

Before I go too far down this rabbit hole, let me emphasize that the fate of one position player – even one as talented as Judge – shouldn’t have that much impact on the World Series futures. But it does look like people (including yours truly) were catching Giants Fever and throwing their hard-earned cash at San Fran, at least up until Wednesday. 

If so, it might take a while for the market to adjust to their absence. This is part of the reason why we’re putting the Yankees in our early MLB picks for 2023; they also have more than enough money to bring in as much new talent as they want, and they usually do. 

Is Mitch Haniger the New Aaron Judge? 

Not quite. The Giants did sign Haniger (.736 OPS) away from the Seattle Mariners last Tuesday for three years and $43.5 million, giving San Francisco’s outfield a needed upgrade – and a former All-Star who finished No. 11 in MVP voting back in 2018. But Haniger was seen as a boost for San Francisco’s efforts to sign Judge, not a roadblock. 

Even when he’s healthy, which he hasn’t been in a while, Haniger isn’t enough to move the MLB lines by himself. And the Giants haven’t added any other new players, either, so again, maybe the difference in their World Series odds reflects an inefficiency that won’t impact New York’s odds until further downstream. 

What About the Mets? 

Oh yeah, that other New York team. They had no trouble dipping into their coffers this week, re-signing CF Brandon Nimmo (.800 OPS) to a fat eight-year, $162-million deal on Thursday. This was after earlier deals for starters Justin Verlander (3.23 xFIP) and Jose Quintana (3.72 xFIP). 

Unfortunately for the Mets, they also lost Jacob deGrom (1.53 xFIP) to the Texas Rangers in free agency. And they are handing Verlander, who turns 40 in February, $86 million over the next two years to replace deGrom at the top of their rotation. 

It could work. The Mets made enough of an impression on the betting market to improve their World Series odds from +1000 to +900, but are they better than the Yankees right now? And will they be better than the Yankees once Opening Day rolls around? Bet accordingly, and may the sphere be with you. 

If you’re located in New York, make sure to look over our New York betting sites before placing a wager.

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.