Have we opened Pandora’s Box? Prediction markets used to be for academics; now, thanks to aggressive deregulation, just about anyone in the United States can gamble as much as they want on the future of just about anything. That freedom means we can’t lean as heavily on the markets for their predictive power – but we can still learn a thing or two when the probability of Yes is surging toward 0% or 100%.
Such was the case this past Monday over at Polymarket, where “Ripple ETF approved in 2025?” saw the price of Yes surge from 90 to 99 cents before immediately tumbling back down to 92, where it remains as we go to press. Is that shiny new XRP ETF just around the corner? The crypto odds say it’s pretty close to a slam-dunk, but there are still some hurdles to clear.
What Is SEC vs. Ripple?
In 2020, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) accused Ripple, developers of the XRP cryptocurrency token, of selling that token in an “unregistered security offering” back in 2013, thus raising over US$1.3 billion from institutional investors. In 2023, the court ruled that cryptocurrency indeed remains a security when sold to said investors – but not when sold to the public at a crypto exchange.
Having gotten that ruling, the SEC dropped its charges against Ripple executives Brad Garlinghouse and Christian Larsen, but officials continue to seek remedy for that $1.3B. And just as the two sides announced a settlement last month that would see Ripple pay a relatively modest $50 million of their original $125 million penalty, a further delay: Judge Analisa Torres shot down a key motion in the settlement as “procedurally improper.”
This somewhat surprising ruling had an immediate impact for both crypto bettors and investors. Anticipation for a settlement had been building, pushing the price of Yes up from 75 cents on May 8 to 86 cents – and then back down to 82 cents after Torres dropped the gavel.
Likewise, the price of XRP climbed from $2.11 on May 8 all the way to $2.58 before everything went sideways. And what’s this? A price spike from $2.15 on June 2 to $2.27 the following day? It’s as if the crypto markets and the prediction markets are linked somehow. Hmmm…
What About June 13?
I see you’ve been on that wacky social media again. The Real Remi Relief did say a big announcement was supposed to happen that day, and that Ripple would be getting out more cheaply than expected. But the latest ruling presumably means we’re months away from a final settlement – which means we’re months away from those XRP ETFs getting approved.
It does seem inevitable, though. Not only have both sides announced the terms of their settlement, but there’s also a pro-crypto administration in the White House, with Donald Trump specifically naming XRP as one of five digital assets going into his proposed U.S. crypto “strategic reserve.”
This may be why the SEC was willing to accept a reduced penalty in the first place.
Is XRP Ready to Run?
Once those spot ETFs are finally unleashed on the market, the price of XRP is likely to go up in the short term, as it did for both Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) when they were approved. Which has some investors looking at this particular window up to June 6 as very important for traders.
Will the market remain hesitant while the SEC-Ripple settlement remains frozen? Or will XRP start going to the moon?
We’re about to find out. It’s not really a binary choice, of course; 2025 could remain fairly flat on the XRP front, but 2026 is looking bright regardless of how long this settlement takes, as both Ripple’s payment system and DeFi platforms in general continue their high adoption rate. Bet and invest accordingly.
