What Could Happen to BTC’s Price If the SEC Approves a Bitcoin ETF?

At Bookmakers Review, we look at what could happen to Bitcoin’s price if the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) approves a Bitcoin ETF in the early weeks of 2024 as expected.

Certainly, this has looked on the cards for a while, since Greyscale won their Lawsuit vs. SEC several weeks ago and the confidence that brought amongst investors has recently driven the Bitcoin price upwards.

What Does the Immediate or Short-Term Future Hold for Bitcoin Price?

Cryptocurrency experts, as well as crypto betting sites, seem quite divided on what will happen in the immediate future of Bitcoin.

The problem is the term “immediate future”, because there is the scheduled halving due to take place sometime in April.

The end of 2023 saw us cover what was happening to the Bitcoin price with a surge in valuation that saw the price rally to above $40,000. Indeed, that upswing has continued in early 2024, with its value on writing this report set at $46,817.20.

That is a 16.5% increase in the price during early December. The confidence has been two-fold, borne out of the forecast flooding of the markets with ETF monies, estimated to be over $10 trillion, and the halving due later, after which many traders are expected to sell and trade.

The Lawsuit brought by Greyscale opened the door for financial giants in the traditional sphere of investing to bring their clients’ portfolios into the digital age for the first time. The financial giants – BlackRock, Fidelity, and Invesco, to name three – had been keeping a close eye on the Lawsuit with their own ETFs planned.

So, the “immediate future” has two events to go through that will affect the value:

• The initial flood of ETFs into the world of cryptocurrency.
• The scheduled halving process of the coin in April (historically, the value of Bitcoin falls afterward due to normal trading).

Bookmakers Review Price Predictions

We believe the price of Bitcoin is going to have some short-term turbulence to deal with those two imminent changes. The coin has been on the rise constantly. Recently, with the investors’ long-term confidence, it has been at its highest for some time.

In the initial three months of the year, we expect the coin to continue to rise steadily in value until those ETFs hit the market. Then it seems logical that the enthusiasm will dry up and the price will begin to stall.

That stalling should carry on through until the halving process and, if the normal trends apply from other halving procedures during the past years, the price will then naturally fall as traders sell.

Back in 2016, Bitcoin only fell between 4% and 5% after the halving, while in 2011 it plummeted 12%.

What About Bitcoin’s Long-Term Future After the ETFs Flood the Market?

Once the turbulence of the upcoming ETFs and halving is over, the long-term forecast for Bitcoin looks bright. Those additional funds from the ETFs will act to solidify the market, bringing greater buoyancy that will naturally form from the newfound depth of investment in the market.

As an example of the potential impact of these new ETFs’, the hack of the SEC’s X (former Twitter) account “officializing” the ETFs approval spiked Bitcoin’s price to almost $48,000.

After the quick rise, the public correction of the false statement plummeted the price back to around $45,000.

With the greater volume of funds in Bitcoin through the ETFs, long-term volatility will likely reduce because of that newfound depth in the overall market.

It will be naturally in the interests of the traditional financial institutions and their investors that the variance reduces over time. We are sure they would not be investing in the previous wild volatility of Bitcoin unless that was part of their forecasts.

The long-term future for Bitcoin after the markets settle down looks very solid to us. The quick extreme profits may stay in the past but there will still be profits to be made, and possibly the cryptocurrency markets may start to align better with the stocks and shares of Wall Street.

Conclusion

Once the SEC approves the ETF Bitcoin, there are bound to be a few months of short-term volatility and, although after the recent surge in value short-term predictions are difficult, that’s not to say the market is in any way struggling.

In fact, once the initial lull after halving is completed by the middle of the year and those ETF investments have settled into the market, investors could easily be getting a more solid annual yield than ever before without the stress and variance of old.