This tie is all but over as a contest after Juventus won the first leg 2-0 in Monaco, but there is still value to be had by analyzing the betting options. Juventus are just 1/33 to qualify with William Hill, and they certainly do not need to win this game. But they may well give their home fans a show and the 4/6 on offer at Sportingbet on them winning this second leg looks interesting.
Juventus have not conceded a Champions League goal in 2016. They beat Porto 3-0 on aggregate in the last 16 and then kept Lionel Messi, Luis Suarez and Neymar quiet in another 3-0 aggregate victory over Juventus. Gianluigi Buffon, Giorgio Chiellini, and Leonardo Bonnuci stood firm once more in their away game against Monaco, and Kylian Mbappe and Radamel Falcao were thwarted. Juventus last conceded a Champions League goal in November, when they beat Sevilla 3-1 on the road. They have conceded just twice in 11 Champions League fixtures this season.
In Serie A they have been similarly impressive. They have conceded just 23 goals in 35 games, and at home have let in just 0.5 goals per game. This is the closest thing to an immovable object in world football. That makes the 11/8 that Bet365 is offering on a Juventus clean sheet look extremely appealing.
Monaco have been in rampant form in this season’s Champions League knockout stages. The French league leaders put six past Man City over two legs in the last 16 and scored another six on aggregate against Borussia Dortmund in the quarter-finals. But those teams have a similar footballing philosophy: pour forwards, take risks, leave gaps at the back as you try to score. They have not come across a team like Juventus. Max Allegri’s men are tough, organized and disciplined. They defend in numbers, they are tactically astute and they keep things incredibly tight at the back.
It is very difficult to see Monaco – for all their attacking endeavour – breaching this Juventus backline. Their performance in the second leg of their quarter-final tie against Barcelona was a defensive master class. Watching Chiellini and Bonucci shut out Messi, Neymar and Suarez time after time was amazing, and it is surprising to see such good odds on them keeping a clean sheet.
A 0-0 draw or a 1-0 win for Juventus looks likely here. When you look at the market for correct score betting, 1-0 is the favourite at 7/1, followed by 2-0 at 15/2 (both with Paddy Power), so a clean sheet could well be on the cards. Juventus will not be motivated to commit many men forwards in attack and they are experts in sitting back and soaking up pressure. These are experienced professionals and they know that they need to remain vigilant to win the prize of a place in the Champions League final.
They will surely make it through, and they will surely face Real Madrid, who beat city rivals Atletico Madrid 3-0 in their first leg, courtesy of a Cristiano Ronaldo hat-trick. Real v Atletico was billed as the unstoppable force versus the immovable object, and the unstoppable force of Real obliterated the object of Atletico thanks to Ronaldo’s devastating movement incisive finishing. Juventus’ defenders would have to be at the top of their game to counter his threat, but after their performance against Messi and Barcelona, they will not fear him. Real are a better all-around team than Barca and will probably win the battle in midfield and thus give the forwards more chances, so it makes sense that Real are the favourites to win the competition, but given the way Juventus are defending at the moment the 23/20 on offer at Betfred on them winning the competition looks very interesting.