Everton will bid to maintain their strong home record against Burnley when the teams clash at Goodison Park on Saturday evening. The Toffees have won five of their last six home games against Sean Dyche’s side, including a hard-fought 1-0 victory last season. That should give Everton a psychological boost as they prepare for another physical game against a hard-tackling but technically limited Burnley team.
The Toffees lost 2-0 to Chelsea last time out, but they remain in excellent form. They previously secured consecutive victories over Liverpool, Southampton and West Brom, and they are sixth in the table. Everton have a genuine chance of securing a top four finish under Carlo Ancelotti, but they need to embark on a strong run of results over the next couple of months.
A home game against a struggling Burnley team provides them with a fantastic opportunity to return to winning ways. The Clarets have been very poor on the road this season, having scored just eight goals in 13 away games. They have the third worst away record in the Premier League. Everton’s home form has been somewhat lacklustre in the absence of fans at Goodison Park, but they should still be too strong for Burnley.
Everton will be without star playmaker James Rodriguez, as the Colombian is still struggling with an injury. Gylfi Sigurdsson is also a doubt, so a lack of creativity could be an issue for the Toffees. Fellow midfielders Fabian Delph, Abdoulaye Doucoure and Jean-Philippe Gbamin are all out injured too, but Ancelotti does have Allan, Andre Gomes and Tom Davies fit to start.
The defence has been the weak link for Everton this season, but that might not be an issue against a Burnley team that have been so toothless in away games. Everton’s greatest strength is in attack. Brazilian forward Richarlison has been on fire in recent weeks, banging in six goals in his last seven games, including winners against Southampton and West Brom at the start of March.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin has misfired, but he remains a dangerous striker, and Burnley defenders Ben Mee and James Tarkowski will have to be at their very best in order to contain him on Saturday.
This is likely to be a tense, hard-fought game. Burnley games have seen an average of just 2 goals this season, which is the second lowest in the league. Everton games have seen 2.74 goals on average, but under 3.5 goals looks attractive in this game.
The last four meetings between Everton and Burnley have seen under 3.5 goals. Bet365 has 4/6 (1.67) on that outcome on Saturday, which looks interesting.
Chris Wood is Burnley’s top scorer with just five goals this season. The Clarets do not create many chances, and they have drawn a blank on their last two visits to Goodison Park. They have averaged a mere 0.6 goals per game on the road this season, whereas Everton have only mustered 1.4 goals per home match.
It could therefore be a low-scoring clash decided by a moment of magic. It might be worth checking to see if Sigurdsson starts before betting on this game, as he has the quality to unlock a stubborn Burnley defence. However, Everton still possess plenty of attacking talent in the form of Richarlison and Calvert-Lewin, with Joshua King provided an interesting option off the bench, so the Toffees should be able to scrape a narrow win.
The odds on a home victory are very attractive. Unibet, Betfair and Betfred are all offering even money (2.00) on an Everton win, or you can find 11/4 on Burnley if you think they will pull off an upset.