Brisbane Heat takes on Perth Scorchers at The Gabba on Wednesday which gives punters the opportunity to take advantage of a significant toss trend.
Frankly, you would have to be mad to bet on this one before the coin flips with a heavy bias in favor of the team chasing. In the last 14 at the venue, 12 have been won by the team chasing.
So why on earth would we consider betting before the toss? The good news is that we don’t expect the odds to change a great deal when we know which team is batting second. The oddsmakers are not looking at such trends that closely.
At the moment Perth are 1.91 favourites with Stan James and William Hill. The Heat are 2.05 with 32Red. You can get 2 with BetVictor.
Without the toss bias, it is arguable that the Scorchers are poor favourites. If they get on the wrong side of it, they are very poor favourites. Their form has been patchy at best despite qualification looking assured.
Heat, however, look certain to be deprived of the services of Chris Lynn, the top runscorer in the tournament, for the rest of the campaign. He has been picked for Australia’s ODI series against Pakistan and with another series following immediately against New Zealand, his race could be run.
In his absence, Brendon McCullum will be expected to fire. He is 3.75 (NetBet, 10Bet) to be top runscorer for Heat. The Kiwi is seventh on the overall run lists.
With McCullum and Lynn dominant, their team-mates have hardly had a hit. Jimmy Peirson is next best with 109 runs. He is 5,5 with the same firms.
But Scorchers have also been hit by a call-up. They are without Mitch Marsh and considering Adam Voges is on the sidelines with an injury, we can’t be concerned about Heat being outgunned by batting power.
Betfred, NetBet,10Bet and green listed bookmakers Paddy Power still reckon Mitch is going to play and have chalked him up for honours so obviously, his team-mates will be better valued with them. Ian Bell, Perth’s top bat in his Marsh’s absence, is 4.5.
Another trend to be aware of affects the Saturday match between the Sydney Sixers and Sydney Thunder. In the last 15 Big Bash games at the SCG, only five have been won by the chaser. So it’s another toss game.
In other news, the Sixers, who are now joint-top and 5 third-favourites for the title with Betfred, have lost Steve O’Keefe for the series. This just days after being told he was available. The spinner, previously their most economical bowler, has been rested for red-ball cricket.