XFL Pick: Defenders/Sea Dragons Defenders +1.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Picks Summary:
- Vipers vs. Battlehawks: Over 46.5 (-110)
- Renegades vs. Guardians: Over 42 (-110)
- Roughnecks vs. Brahmas: Under 40.5 (-110)
- Defenders vs. Sea Dragons: Defenders +1.5 (-110)
The Week 8 XFL schedule starts Saturday with a St. Louis team that is arguably the second-best team in the XFL right now at 5-2. It will end Sunday with perhaps the game that will decide the new front-runner in the league when the DC Defenders (6-1) take on the Seattle Sea Dragons (5-2) in Seattle. The Sea Dragons have won five in a row while the Defenders finally lost a game last week.
We are making our top pick in all four games. You will find XFL betting markets at many of the best sportsbooks.
Vegas Vipers vs. St. Louis Battlehawks
Saturday, April 08, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at The Dome at America’s Center
To get things started early this Saturday afternoon, the Battlehawks are a 7-point home favorite with a total of 46.5 points.
With this matchup, we have a St. Louis team that ranks third in scoring while the Vipers are next to last in points allowed on defense. This could be a big game for quarterback AJ McCarron, who ranks No. 2 in the league with 1,544 passing yards. More importantly, McCarron has now thrown 17 touchdowns or 5 more than any other player.
The experience and past success McCarron had at high levels of football made the Battlehawks a favorite in the XFL coming into this season. So far, that is proving to be relevant after McCarron sliced and diced a solid Houston defense in last week’s 24-15 win. Despite being sacked a league-high 23 times behind a suspect offensive line, McCarron is making things work with this offense.
While McCarron has been a constant for the Battlehawks, the 2-5 Vipers continue to roll through quarterbacks after recently trading Luis Perez to Arlington. Jalan McClendon got the start last week and was solid, leading the Vipers to a 26-12 win over struggling San Antonio.
The Pick
The one thing we continue to see with the Vipers is a passing game that can move the ball down the field better than most XFL offenses. The Vipers average 7.1 yards per pass, which ranks No. 2 in the league. The Vipers have 26 passing plays of 20-plus yards gained, which leads the XFL.
With the Vipers getting better quarterback play now and the steady hand of McCarron, this one does have the potential to be a higher-scoring game. We like the Over as the best bet for your XFL picks.
XFL Pick: Over 46.5 (-110) at Bovada
Arlington Renegades vs. Orlando Guardians
Saturday, April 08, 2023 – 04:00 PM EDT at Camping World Stadium
For the first time all season, Orlando is the favorite, albeit by 1 point over Arlington. But the Guardians have a chance to win back-to-back games after finally getting a win, the upset of the season in the XFL.
Is Orlando on the right track? After failing to surpass 16 points in the first four games, the Guardians have scored 32, 19, and 37 points in the last three games. Moving from Paxton Lynch to Quinten Dormady at quarterback has been a huge help here. Dormady has some really solid numbers, leading the XFL with 8.0 yards per attempt and 70.2% completions.
Arlington has been an abysmal offense with 93 points scored this season, the only team still under 100 points. But reinforcements should be on the way after the team traded for quarterback Luis Perez before Week 7. It was too soon to get him on the field last weekend, but he should show up this week. Perez is averaging 7.4 yards per attempt and a 36.1% passing first-down rate - solid numbers by XFL standards.
The Pick
Remember, Orlando won 37-36 last week in the most shocking upset of the season against previously undefeated DC. It still took a missed 63-yard field goal to win that game. The Guardians have allowed 214 points, which is by far the most in the league. While the lowest-scoring offense vs. worst-scoring defense is an interesting matchup, we think the improved Orlando offense can do a lot of damage to carry this over.
With a total of 42 points, we think both teams can get to 21 in this game, so we like the Over.
XFL Pick: Over 42 (-110) at Bovada
Houston Roughnecks vs. San Antonio Brahmas
Sunday, April 09, 2023 - 03:00 PM EDT at Alamodome
The Roughnecks have seen a 4-0 start turn into a 4-3 slide, but San Antonio is a disappointing 2-5. Therefore, it is not surprising to see Houston is still a 4.5-point road favorite in this game with a total of 40.5 points.
Let’s just face the facts. The Brahmas have scored more than 15 points in one game all season. Houston’s defense has shown some cracks during this losing streak, but the Roughnecks, coached by Wade Phillips, still have the most sacks (23) and interceptions (9) of any defense in the XFL.
This looks like yet another game where San Antonio will fail to break 15 points. But what about the Houston offense? It was absolutely awful last week with a passing game that averaged 3.3 yards per attempt, spoiling a solid rushing effort (25 carries for 136 yards).
The Pick
It seems 24-15 was a popular score in the XFL last week with two games ending in that final. It could happen again in this one, or it could be even lower-scoring than that with two poor offenses right now. We will gladly take the Under here in what could be the best bet of the Week 8 schedule.
For Houston residents looking to bet on this game, you can do it at our top Texas betting sites.
XFL Pick: Under 40.5 (-110) at Bovada
DC Defenders vs. Seattle Sea Dragons
Sunday, April 09, 2023 – 07:00 PM EDT at Lumen Field
The XFL schedule makers keep getting the best game to close the week as a main event should. This time, we get to see if the DC Defenders can get back to winning as the best team in the league, or if Seattle is going to tie them at 6-2 with a sixth-straight win following that 0-2 start. Seattle is up to a 1.5-point home favorite with a total of 47.5 points.
This is a rematch of Week 1 when the Defenders came through in the fourth quarter in a 22-18 win. Seattle’s other loss was a stunning close one to St. Louis, another very good team. During the 5-game winning streak, Seattle’s best win was against Houston, but it will have to prove itself against better teams and offenses like DC and St. Louis.
Seattle quarterback Ben DiNucci continues to lead the league in attempts and yards, but Seattle is third in yards per attempt (6.6) while DC is No. 1 (7.2). Likewise, the Defenders are No. 1 in passing first down rate (35.1%) while Seattle is No. 4 (32.4%).
When it comes to running the ball, DC blows the competition away with 1,181 yards - no other offense has more than 679 yards on the ground. The Sea Dragons are second with 4.5 yards per carry to DC’s 4.8, the highest average.
The Pick
Seattle has a good offense, but the Defenders have scored 30 more points than the next-best team in the league, and the efficiency metrics are better in passing and running than Seattle. The Sea Dragons have thrown a league-high 9 interceptions, so DiNucci can be prone to mistakes.
Also, even in losing last week to Orlando, the offense was still excellent for the Defenders, producing 36 points. But a late fumble and not enough time to get more than an ill-fated 63-yard field goal did in the Defenders for their first loss.
Following the XFL odds, let’s back the Defenders to establish themselves as the favorite again with a road cover to end Seattle’s winning streak.
XFL Pick: Defenders +1.5 (-110) at Bovada
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