Top MLB Pick: Diamondbacks First-Five Innings ML (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
After the Diamondbacks and Rangers split the first two games in Texas with Arizona winning Game 2, the scenery shifts to Arizona for Game 3 of the World Series, and we are here with three best bets for Monday to play at the best sportsbooks.
These are value bets mostly based on our proprietary model, thus when we make underdog plays, it means we project long-term profit at the odds posted even with a sub-.500 record. Our Game 3 plays consist of the 5-inning side and total and the full-game total.
Let’s break down the MLB odds for tonight!
Texas Rangers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Monday, October 30, 2023 – 08:03 PM EDT at Chase Field
Brandon Pfaadt of the Diamondbacks has pitched better as the season has gone on and he gets our call for the first 5 innings over Max Scherzer and the Rangers.
Do Not Be Fooled
Do not be fooled by Pfaadt’s overall numbers from this season and which had him at 3-9 with a 5.72 ERA and 4.46 xFIP. He was atrocious during his first-ever Major League stint early in the season and sent back to the minors with a 9.82 ERA. He finally fulfilled his potential after being recalled for the second time though, posting a 3.82 xFIP after August 1st with an impressive strikeout rate of 9.83.
Then, after probably battling nerves during his shaky first post-season start, he has rebounded by allowing just two runs and eight hits with 18strikeouts vs. two walks in 14.1 innings since then and was even entrusted to start Game 7 of the NLCS vs, the Phillies.
The only negative is he was pulled after four innings and 4.1 innings respectively in two of the last three starts, but he has gained the trust by now to go further and he did work deeper into games during the season.
Same Scenario?
We said before Scherzer was named to start Game 7 of the ALCS vs. the Astros that we hoped manager Bruce Bochy would put feelings aside and not be scared to pull the future Hall of Famer early if he was not pitching well, and sure enough Scherzer was pulled after 2.2 innings in favor of regular starter Jordan Montgomery.
Max was not that terrible though, allowing two runs in those 2.2 frames while throwing 30 of his 46 pitches for strikes, and with this not being a Game 7, he may be allowed to continue tonight with a similar effort. But if he struggles, Texas now has two regular starters in the bullpen that can piggyback off him in regular season ace Jon Gray and Dane Dunning.
The Pick
So although we respect the fact that Scherzer may not be given a chance to implode with his reduced velocity this year, we still like Pfaadt better here especially if he is allowed to go at least five innings, so we are betting Arizona for the first five.
Predicted Score: Diamondbacks 2 – Rangers 1 (First Five Innings)
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks First-Five Innings ML (-110) at Bookmaker
While the potential of a quick hook for Scherzer does not deter us from backing Pfaadt for the first half, that same potential does have us also betting the Under for 5 innings.
Maybe He’ll Be Good?
We have already presented our case for Pfaadt above, so this bet is contingent on how Bochy handles the once-great Scherzer who is now a shell of his old self.
And let us not discount the possibility that Scherzer could turn back the clock a bit, as after averaging a disturbing 93.9 MPH during the regular season and then spending a month on the injured list before the ALCS, he did hit 96 MPH in his two return starts and did throw strikes.
The Pick
But if not, it is great to have starters working out of the bullpen to provide bulk relief, and there is a third option in that regard we have not yet mentioned. Considering that Scherzer, Gray and Dunning are all right-handed, that third option that may most baffle Arizona batters could be bringing in left-handed current Game 4 starter Andrew Heaney, substituting either Gray or Dunning to take that start.
We are trusting Bochy to make the right call there and are backing the Under for the first 5 innings.
MLB Pick: First Five Innings Under 5 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Moving on to our third play for this game, we are also betting the Under for the full game.
Limit Middle Relief
We have often harped during these playoffs about the Arizona bullpen having the worst xFIP of any playoff team after September 1st, all due to atrocious long/middle relief while the backend of set-up man Kevin Ginkel and closer Paul Sewald has been mostly stellar.
Well, with the day off Sunday between games, the Diamondbacks now have two ways to limit the exposure of the weak part of the bullpen, with one already being mentioned in allowing Pfaadt to go at least five innings. Secondly, with the day off, Ginkel could be available to pitch two innings and could be brought in for the seventh inning. Instead of his customary eighth inning.
Better Pen Set-Up
The Texas bullpen was better in September than earlier in the year. Still, the regular relievers reverted to their old ways once the playoffs started, with the pen currently sporting an ugly 5.12 post-season xFIP. However, adding the previously injured Scherzer and Gray to the ALCS roster and moving Gray to a bullpen that already included the unneeded fifth starter Dunning has helped.
The Pick
So Texas now has better options before getting to the more competent part of the pen in set-up man Aroldis Chapman and closer Jose Leclerc.
With the off day helping both bullpens, we are making the full game Under our third bet for Game 3 on Monday.
Predicted Score: Diamondbacks 4 – Rangers 3
MLB Pick: Under 9.5 -108 at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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