Top MLB Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+144) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
The World Series is underway with the Rangers rallying late on Friday night to take Game 1. Now, we are here with three best bets for Game 2 on Saturday at the best sportsbooks.
These are value bets mostly based on our proprietary model, thus when we make underdog plays, it means we project long-term profit at the odds posted even with a sub-.500 record. Our three Game 2 best bets include the side and total, as well as what we feel is an undervalued player prop.
Let’s break down the MLB odds for tonight!
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers
Saturday, October 28, 2023 – 08:03 PM EDT at Globe Life Field
After the heartbreak of last night, we are looking for the Diamondbacks to bounce back in Game 2 and are backing them as underdogs with Merrill Kelly taking on Jordan Montgomery and the Rangers.
Third Time, No Charm
Kelly had a fine season for Arizona going 12-8 with a 3.29 ERA, although his xFIP was a bit higher at 3.83. Even with the higher xFIP however, he still combined a nice strikeout rate of 9.47 K/9 with a good 45.2% groundball rate, which is a combination we always like to see.
Breaking down Merrill’s three playoff starts, he was great in his first post-season outing tossing 6.1 scoreless innings vs. the Dodgers before allowing four runs in 5.2 innings vs. the Phillies. Still, he had six strikeouts and allowed only three hits that start, with his troubles coming his third time through the lineup.
Longer Leash
Then he pitched well again last time out allowing one run on three hits with eight strikeouts but was pulled after five innings to avoid facing the Philadelphia lineup a third time. We expect a longer leash for Kelly tonight and expect at least six innings from him, which would mean less work for the scary (in a bad way) Arizona long relief.
Inconsistent
We had a love/hate relationship with Montgomery during the season due to his inconsistency, and while he finished with a 3.20 ERA, his 4.01 xFIP pointed to that inconsistency, making him a dicey proposition as a betting favorite. It also did not help that he had a soft K/BB ratio of 7.92/2.29 per 9.
Jordan’s post-season has mirrored his regular season as while he is 3-0 with a 2.16 ERA in four starts, that has come with a 4.01 xFIP and a weak strikeout rate of 6.12 K/9. And he had one of his customary blow-ups last time out as after allowing one run over the first 5.1 innings, he suddenly allowed four consecutive baserunners and was pulled from the game.
With the Diamondbacks being decided underdogs in Game 2 down 0-1 in the series, we are betting them to even the series with the more consistent starting pitcher.
Predicted Score: Diamondbacks 4 – Rangers 3
The Side
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+144) at Heritage Sports
Continuing with this same game, we are also betting the Under based on the assumption that Kelly will be allowed to go at least six innings.
Bullpens
We have harped throughout these playoffs about the Arizona bullpen having the worst xFIP after September 1st of any team to make the playoffs, but all those problems have come in long/middle relief, as the backend of closer Paul Sewald and eighth-inning set-up man Kevin Ginkel have been fine for the most part.
Resilience
Ginkel posted a 2.48 ERA with a nice strikeout rate of 9.64 K/9 during the regular season and he is unscored on over 10 post-season innings with six Holds in nine appearances and an even better 12.60 K/9. Sewald meanwhile had 34 saves during the season with a lofty 11.87 K/9, and he was a perfect 6-for-6 in save chances these playoffs before unfortunately allowing the game-tying two-run homer last night.
But even there, Sewald still struck out the side and he showed great resilience with two of those strikeouts coming after he allowed the home run.
As for the Texas bullpen, that unit provided 6.1 scoreless innings last night, and with Jon Gray, who was the ace of the starting rotation when healthy during the regular season, and another starter in Dane Dunning both available to provide bulk innings if necessary, the pen is in better shape now than during the year.
So really, we expect the majority of the runs in this game to be scored while Montgomery is on the mound, so the pitching situation the rest of the way has us betting the Under in Game 2.
The Total
MLB Pick: Under 9 (-113) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Marcus Semien (Texas)
- Over 1.5 Total Bases
For our third play in this contest, we are banking on Marcus Semien to go Over his total bases prop of 1.5.
AL Hit Leader
For starters, Semien led the American League in hits this season while ranking fourth in the majors with 185, which propelled him to rank second in the AL and seventh in the majors in total bases with 320, more than any other player in this World Series.
Granted Marcus has struggled with a .190 batting average going 11-for-58 during the post-season, but we actually feel that is adding value to this prop by being able to get it at positive odds. Plus he is starting to come around, going 4-for-14 (.286) the last three games.
At this price, we are betting on Semien to either have a multi-hit game or get the one extra-base hit necessary to go Over this prop.
The Prop
MLB Pick: Marcus Semien Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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