Editor’s Note: Due to extreme weather conditions and public safety concerns, Sunday’s Steelers-Bills game has been rescheduled to Monday at 4:30 p.m. ET, as per the NFL.
NFL Pick: Bills -10 (-105) for 4 units at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Swinger enters the postseason coming off a clean sweep, nailing all three of his Week 18 picks. Let’s check our NFL odds and see what the man has cookin’ at the main offshore sportsbooks for this first week of the NFL playoffs!
- Swinger’s 2023 NFL Record: 26-28-1 ATS (-20.84 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
- @SwingeratBMR
Week 18 Recap
My season has been like the weather in New England. If you don’t like it, just wait a week. And just like that I went from the outhouse to the penthouse, scoring ATS winners on under in the Jets/Patriots game, the Giants +5 ½ (didn’t even need a point as they upset the Eagles outright), and the Bills laying three points on the road in Miami where I did my best impression of Chalky von Chalkowitz.
The latter was undoubtedly a square play but the public doesn’t always lose and, thankfully, they didn’t in the Sunday night showdown between these two divisional rivals. I had three units on each of those three plays, and if I’m doing the new math correctly, that means I picked up 9 units for the week.
But trust me, I’m hardly patting myself on the back as I realize I’m not even at .500 this season and down over 20 units. I take consolation in the fact that more than a few of the respected handicappers I know are having even more disappointing seasons. Misery loves company, right?
Okay, so let’s see what we can see as our options begin to dwindle by the week. If we’re going to make a run at cutting this deficit and maybe, just maybe, making a few bucks, we better do it right now!
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills
Monday, January 15, 2024 – 04:30 PM ET at Highmark Stadium
Key Stats
- Buffalo has covered in 3 of their last 4 meetings with the Steelers.
- Buffalo is 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games played on a Sunday.
- Pittsburgh is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games against an AFC East opponent.
The Steelers are in the postseason courtesy of the scheduling gods. Mike Tomlin shifted gears over the last three games of the season. He recently replaced Mitchell Trubisky for Mason Rudolph, a solid backup and serviceable starting quarterback. Rudolph had the good fortune of playing against two defenses – Bengals and Seahawks – whose Expected Points Added (EPA) metric ranks them 28th and 31st, respectively, before facing a Ravens team comprised of second-stringers in the regular-season finale.
Rudolph will find the sledding far more difficult in this one. The Bills defense is ranked No. 4 in points allowed, surrendering just 18.7 points per game. Meanwhile, the Steelers offense is ranked 28th in points scored, averaging just 17.9 PPG.
How can the Steelers win if they can’t score? Well, they can’t, but the question remains, can they cover?
The answer is probably not because they don’t have their resident force of nature, T.J. Watt wreaking havoc. Here’s a stat that might interest you. Last season Pittsburgh was 8-2 SU and had the No. 6 passing defense with Watt in the game versus 1-6 and ranked 30th against the pass without him. Pretty important piece to Pitt’s defensive puzzle, don’tcha think?
I don’t think this will be much of a game and the Bills should win this one in a laugher. My only reservation is a backdoor cover by the Steelers because the spread is so high. But I’ll roll the dice and you should too.
NFL Pick: Bills -10 (-105) for 4 units at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, January 14, 2024 – 04:30 PM ET at AT&T Stadium
Key Stats
- Green Bay is 9-1 SU in their last 10 games against Dallas.
- Dallas is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games.
- Dallas is 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games played in January.
If betting against the high-octane Cowboys scares you then welcome to the club. But we must conquer our fears and look at this game with an objective eye. I will start by pointing out that a quality running back, when healthy, can make a notable difference not only in the running game but the passing game as well.
Green Bay’s Aaron Jones has been hurt throughout much of the season but he’s healthy now and it shows. Over the last three games, the former Pro Bowler has rushed for 111, 120, and 127 yards with a 5.7 yards per carry average. Not so coincidentally, the Packers have won all three of those games. Jordan Love has thrived as well averaging 264 passing yards with a 72.6 completion percentage and 7 touchdowns with no picks.
The Cowboys’ run-stop unit is ranked 20th, allowing over 116 yards per game. And I suspect the Packers will want to keep their offense grinding, keeping Dak Prescott and the boys on the sidelines. I also believe that the hook we’re getting with the Packers is big. But, hopefully, we won’t have to sweat it to the point where we’ll need it.
NFL Pick: Packers +7 ½ (-108) for 3 units at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
L.A. Rams vs. Detroit Lions
Sunday, January 14, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Ford Field
Key Stats
- LA Rams are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games.
- LA Rams are 6-0 SU in their last 6 games against an NFC opponent.
- Detroit is 1-5 SU in their last 6 games against an NFC West opponent.
Do you hear those sirens and see those flashing lights? Why, it must be Swinger’s MAX PLAY ALERT! That’s right kids, we’re putting all of our chips on the table and going all-in on the Rams, one of the sneakiest good teams down the homestretch of the season.
It’s amazing how impactful healthy players can be, right? Well, it’s actually quite logical, but most of the squares bet on the jersey rather than on who’s wearing it. Matthew Stafford has recovered from his finger injury and most of the Rams walking wounded have returned from the trainer’s table to circle the wagons and give a unified big middle finger to the rest of the league.
As for Detroit, I know, it’s hard to root against them. I get it, I’m aware of the vibe, the whole nine yards. But I’ll put my emotions aside because I have yet to see a paycheck from Lions’ owner Sheila Hamp. And until I do, I’m callin’em as I see’em.
Detroit will be without a key weapon in Sam LaPorta. He’s the next generation of superstar tight ends in the league. But on the outside chance he does play, I doubt he’ll be much of a factor after sustaining a knee injury last week against the Vikings. That’s a big-body pass catcher who will either be absent or diminished for the Lions’ offense and that’s a huge check mark for the Rams’ defense.
LA has won 7 of their last 8 games and covered in all but one while averaging over 28 points per game. I like them to win outright. But we’re getting a field goal head start, so I’ll grab that just in case this one’s close.
NFL Pick: Rams +3 (+100) for 5 units at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The Woodman’s Corner (8-10 ATS)
After consecutive double-digit underdog stunners, the Woodman decided the Ravens were the object of his affection in the final week of the season. Unfortunately, much like the women he’s dated, they didn’t love him back and bowed to the Steelers, 17-10, in what was essentially a meaningless game for the AFC North champs.
But Woodman is nothing if not nimble. He once ate an unpeeled avocado off the back of his heel while standing, so it’s no surprise that he’s shifting gears and backing the very same team that done him dirty last week.
Although I disagree, the Woodman says Bet the Farm on the Steelers as they begin their playoff sojourn in the land of the Bills Mafia with Josh Allen as the hit squad’s chief triggerman.
Woodman’s Pick: Steelers +10 (-108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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