Top NFL Pick: Dak Prescott Over 24.5 Pass Completions (+100) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The NFL’s Week 16 schedule has some fantastic games with the Cowboys-Dolphins and the big one on Monday night between the 49ers and Ravens. We are also looking at a running back in Tampa, Jared Goff’s chance to win a division title for Detroit, and if Bryce Young can have a signature game against Green Bay’s struggling defense.
We found our favorite player props for Week 16, which you can always find at top-rated offshore sportsbooks. Feel free to play the picks as singles or parlay your favorites.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, December 24, 2023 – 04:05 PM ET at Raymond James Stadium
Rachaad White (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
The Buccaneers have spent most of the last 2 seasons struggling to run the ball more than any team in the NFL. But things have clicked over the last month as Rachaad White has rushed for over 80 yards in each of the last 4 games for the team.
White has hit 100 yards twice in that span, and it does not appear to be all opponent-based, as the Falcons are above average in run defense, and the Colts and Panthers are also in the top half in yards per carry allowed.
White has also proven to be a capable receiver and has caught a touchdown in back-to-back games as Baker Mayfield has gotten more comfortable in this offense at using his backs.
White has gone over 104.5 total yards from scrimmage in 6-of-14 games this year, but he has done it in 4 straight games as the offense has featured him more. He should get plenty of touches at home against the Jaguars this week in another important game as the Buccaneers chase the NFC South title.
The Pick
The Jacksonville defense is nothing special against running backs, and this unit just allowed Baltimore’s backfield to run for over 150 yards last week. White’s ability as a receiver could also be exploited in this matchup as the Jaguars have allowed a league-high 94 catches to running backs.
Look for White to turn in another big game from scrimmage and hit his over in total yards.
NFL Pick: Rachaad White Over 104.5 Total Rushing & Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada
Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, December 24, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at U.S. Bank Stadium
Jared Goff (Detroit Lions)
Jared Goff is coming off his best game of the season in which he threw for 278 yards and 5 touchdowns against a Denver defense that had been playing well. Goff has gone over 252.5 passing yards in 8-of-14 games this year, and his 2 highest games have been on the road.
The Lions and Vikings have been involved in some passing shootouts this year. There have only been 7 games in the NFL this year where both quarterbacks threw for over 300 yards and 2 touchdowns, and the Vikings or Lions were involved in 4-of-7 games.
Goff has passed for at least 277 yards in his last 3 games against Minnesota, though this will be the first time he faces the Vikings this year with Brian Flores as defensive coordinator. The Vikings are running a unique scheme where they blitz more than anyone and also drop 8 defenders into coverage more than anyone. It has produced mixed results, but there is reason to think a high-blitz game could be good for Goff getting rid of the ball quickly for positive gains.
There have been 5 games this season where Goff was blitzed at least 12 times, and he threw for over 252.5 yards in all 5 games.
The Pick
Minnesota has not faced many strong offenses, especially at throwing the ball, this year. But we have seen Brock Purdy, Patrick Mahomes, Jake Browning, and Justin Herbert all pass for over 270 yards against this defense.
With a chance to wrap up the NFC North with a win, look for Goff to throw frequently instead of handing off into the jaws of the No. 4 run defense. He should be able to approach another game with 270 yards against the Vikings.
NFL Pick: Jared Goff Over 252.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada
Green Bay Packers vs. Carolina Panthers
Sunday, December 24, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Bank of America Stadium
Bryce Young (Carolina Panthers)
A line such as 168.5 passing yards is so low for a starting quarterback these days, but Bryce Young has failed to go over it in 5 games this year, including 2 in a row.
The good news is it shouldn’t be pouring rain like it was last week against Atlanta when Young passed for 167 yards. He didn’t have a big game, but he had a big drive to win the game late. He’ll be looking for improvement this week against a Green Bay defense that is making moving the ball look easy.
The Packers have already allowed 10-of-14 quarterbacks to pass for at least 194 yards this year. That number would have been 11-of-14 had Derek Carr not been injured in the New Orleans game in Week 3. The only quarterbacks held under 190 yards against this defense were Los Angeles backup Brett Rypien (130), Kenny Pickett (126), and Tommy DeVito (158).
But there are holes in this secondary to exploit, and a veteran like Adam Thielen, who used to play for the Vikings, knows how to play this Joe Barry-coached defense. Young needs to keep his composure against the pass rush, because he will throw for more yards than he has in over a month against this defense.
The Pick
Earlier in the season, Young had a 4-game streak with over 200 passing yards, including his best statistical game in the win over Houston that seemed like it could be a turning point for him. But things have only gone south since, and he hasn’t even thrown a touchdown in his last 4 games.
But this Green Bay defense has been charitable with every team but the Rams (with Rypien starting for an injured Matthew Stafford), scoring 17 points against them. We are going to trust Young to have a bounce-back game and give Carolina fans some hope for 2024.
NFL Pick: Bryce Young Over 168.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada
Dallas Cowboys vs. Miami Dolphins
Sunday, December 24, 2023 – 04:25 PM ET at Hard Rock Stadium
Dak Prescott (Dallas Cowboys)
After the Cowboys flopped on the road again in Buffalo last week, there was a thought that the team messed up by not going on offense first and setting the tone. A big reason for Dallas’ success is early control of games with Dak Prescott getting in a rhythm. He never got comfortable in games like San Francisco and Buffalo, and those games quickly got out of reach by halftime.
This week, the Cowboys need to take control early in Miami, a defense that has been up and down this season. The Dolphins shut out Patrick Mahomes in the 2nd half of that game in Germany, but they also blew a 2-touchdown lead to rookie Will Levis of the Titans for his only 300-yard passing game.
Dallas has the right kind of mixture of possession receivers (Michael Gallup), deep threats (Brandin Cooks), receiving tight ends (Jake Ferguson), and backs (Tony Pollard) to throw the ball at every level of the field against this defense. Not to mention CeeDee Lamb’s ability to dominate games.
Miami has a top 5 run defense. This is not a game that Tony Pollard is going to win for Dallas. Prescott has to be in control, and that means completing passes early and often. Prescott has over 24.5 completions in 8-of-14 games this year, so he has done it more often than not this season.
He has also done it on the road 3 times, so it’s not impossible for this offense to look competent on the road.
The Pick
This should be a high-scoring game, which can naturally inflate how many attempts and completions Prescott ends up with as he tries to keep pace with the Dolphins. With better weather and a wake-up call from last week, look for Prescott to look more comfortable and accurate this week.
NFL Pick: Dak Prescott Over 24.5 Pass Completions (+100) at Bovada
Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers
Monday, December 25, 2023 – 08:15 PM ET at Levi’s Stadium
Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens)
This is rare territory for Lamar Jackson as a 5.5-point underdog, something he hasn’t been since his rookie year. But that speaks to how good the 49ers are and how great Jackson is going to have to be in this game to pull off the win.
When the chips are down, you often see Jackson take matters into his own hands and run with the ball, either by design or those scrambles where he is so effective. Jackson has over 10.5 rushing attempts in 3 straight games and has done so in 6-of-14 games this year.
The 49ers have a great defense that can make life hard on Jackson as a passer in this game. He is also missing his most reliable receiver in tight end, Mark Andrews. He has not had the greatest connection with veteran Odell Beckham Jr., and rookie wideout Zay Flowers has been a non-factor in some recent games after a big start to his season.
The Ravens also lost their most explosive running back to a torn ACL last week in Keaton Mitchell, so that puts more pressure on Jackson even if the team still has a stable of backs in Gus Edwads and Justice Hill. But this could further put Jackson under pressure to run for 1st downs for his team in this matchup.
The Pick
The only complaint you might have about this pick is that if the Ravens don’t win the game, Jackson can’t pad his rushing totals with some kneeldowns to end the game. But it should be a competitive game and if the Ravens are going to have any shot, it’s because Jackson is a dual-threat star. Let’s go with his Over in rushing attempts.
NFL Pick: Lamar Jackson Over 10.5 Rushing Attempts (+105) at Bovada
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