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UFC Vegas 95 First Look: Tybura vs. Spivac II Betting Picks, Odds & Predictions
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David Manyun
- August 8, 2024
Table of Contents
UFC Pick: Serghei Spivac ML (-155) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
In the UFC’s return to their trusty Apex in Nevada, top contending heavyweight brutes will trade leather for the evening’s main event, and we’re covering all your betting needs with top sportsbooks.
Number 8 and No.9-ranked heavyweights Marcin Tybura and Serghei Spivac will meet four years after their first octagon battle this weekend. A lot has changed since then, but will Saturday’s result differ from that of 2020?
Read on for our complete betting guide with an early preview of the UFC Vegas 95 main event clash between Tybura and Spivac, including updated UFC odds and our free expert UFC first-look betting picks, predictions, and analysis.
And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel, where our expert has analyzed the Marcin Tybura vs. Serghei Spivac and Yana Santos vs. Chelsea Chandler bouts.
Marcin Tybura vs. Serghei Spivac
UFC Vegas 95 Heavyweight Main Event Bout
UFC Vegas 95 Information
- When: Saturday, August 10, 2024 – 05:00 PM ET
- Where: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
- Scheduled Bouts: 10
- Main Event: Marcin Tybura vs. Serghei Spivac
- Moneyline Probability: Tybura – 42% (+135) Spivac – 60% (-155)
UFC Vegas 95 Main Event Profiles
Marcin “Tybur” Tybura
Poland’s Marcin Tybura is no title contender, and his pro tenure thus far hasn’t wowed the audience by any means. However, he’s a gatekeeper for the heavyweight division’s top rankings, and if the opposition lacks capability in any area, he has the tools and experience to expose them.
The Polish native had already dominated his weekend opponent once before, and although many will proclaim his age of 38 will be a factor the second time around, a 7-2 record since his initial meeting with Spivac in 2021 isn’t to be overlooked, especially when those lone two defeats were against the current champ, Tom Aspinall, and a top-five ranked Alexander Volkov.
Tybura Best Moneyline Odds: (+135) at BetOnline
Serghei “Polar Bear” Spivac
Similar to his weekend foe, Serghei Spivac has lost just two fights since the first meeting with Tybura. The current and former heavyweight titleholders, Aspinall and Ciryl Gane would defeat most competitors in this weight class, so there’s zero shame in said losses.
While he’s certainly no unstoppable force like his nickname, ‘Polar Bear,’ suggests, taking a formidable opponent in Derrick Lewis to the ground and making him submit in the first round last year was impressive. MMA Legend Daniel Cormier is the only other MMA pro that’s been able to submit ‘The Black Beast.’ Although Spivac followed up with a TKO loss to Gane, he might have enough confidence and evolution to rectify his Tybura loss in 2020.
Serghei Best Moneyline Odds: (-155) at BetOnline
UFC Vegas 95: Tale of the Tape
| Marcin Tybura | UFC Vegas 95 | Serghei Spivac |
|---|---|---|
| 38 | Age | 29 |
| 6’3” | Height | 6’3” |
| 78” | Reach | 78” |
| Poland | Nationality | Moldova |
| United Gym | Affiliation | Polar Bear Team |
| 1 win | Current Streak | 1 loss |
| 25-8-0 | Pro Record | 16-4-0 |
| 12-7 | UFC Record | 7-4 |
UFC Vegas 95 Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights
Looking back at Tybura vs. Spivac in 2020, the former seemingly had a size advantage and could bully the latter in grounded positions. The fight began in a striking battle, but as both men became lethargic, it resulted in a sloppy 15 minutes where Tybura edged the then-young Spivac on the mat.
Skillset-wise, I don’t believe much has changed. However, Spivac is arguably entering the prime of his career, and back then, he was an inexperienced, young up-and-coming fighter. Contrastingly, Tybura is exiting his prime, and while wins over Tai Tuivasa and Blagoy Ivanov have assisted more wins than losses in recent times, those opponents just aren’t athletic enough to match the Polish fighter’s well-versed skill set.
Spivac looks much more suited for the heavyweight division than he did in 2020. His frame has filled out, and he’s been able to match physically imposing opponents such as Lewis, Augusto Sakai, and Greg Hardy. I believe we might see him become the aggressor in grappling situations this weekend as opposed to allowing Tybura success in this area, as we saw in the first fight.
Spivac Moneyline: The UFC Vegas 95 Best Bet Formula
The available UFC odds have placed Spivac as the slight betting favorite, contrary to the result we witnessed four years back.
Spivac’s early tenure featured a fighter who relied on grappling for success. Now, we’re looking at an evolved fighter whose offensive striking sets up his ground game, which often involves trips, throws, and clinched takedown situations.
Tybura has looked too sloppy in recent years, especially in the striking realm, even when he’s walked out victorious. I don’t believe we can rely on such a fighter, and as Spivac has the experience and blueprint to battle the game plan that once beat him, give me the younger, more dangerous finisher on the moneyline.
UFC Pick: Serghei Spivac ML (-155) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
