Editor’s note: The Jousset – Gooden fight was canceled Friday evening due to medical concerns for the latter one as per the UFC.
UFC St. Louis Punching Parlay
- McKinney/Ribovics Under 1.5 Rounds (-250)
- Kevin Jousset ML (-220)
UFC Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+103) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The Ultimate Fighting Championship hosts a Fight Night event in The Show-Me State this weekend, and I’m excited to show you some intriguing parlay pieces.
Below, you’ll find two of my favorite picks from the UFC St. Louis fight card, and the betting lines I’ve seen are strong enough to couple and create a 2-leg wager for this weekend’s event. Continue reading to find the best MMA parlay value on Saturday night, along with enticing UFC odds offered by the top sportsbooks.
Apart from the main event featuring the Lewis vs. Nascimento bout on the UFC St. Louis card, we’ve got more top MMA picks waiting for you on our YouTube channel.
UFC St. Louis Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, May 11, 2024 – 04:00 PM ET
- Location: Enterprise Center, St. Louis, Missouri
- Scheduled Fights: 13
- Main Event: Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento (UFC Heavyweight Bout)
Esteban Ribovics vs. Terrance McKinney
UFC St. Louis Lightweight Bout
Ribovics: The Story So Far
Ribovics returns to the octagon for his third UFC bout this weekend after going 1-1 thus far. As a young rising talent, the Argentinian native has shown a lot of promise through a diverse skill set. Although the lack of experience factor is present, oddsmakers remain confident in his abilities since placing him as the betting favorite.
- Ribovics pro MMA Record: 12-1-0
- Ribovics Knockout Wins: 5
- Ribovics Submission Wins: 5
McKinney: The Story So Far
Terrance McKinney owns significantly more experience than his weekend foe, but notably, whenever the competition level has raised, he’s faltered drastically and been stopped via KO/TKO or submission.
For the Illinois native, blowing his cardio early has been an issue, but in contrast, he’s won 90% of his pro career bouts by being a fast starter and stopping the opposition early.
- McKinney Pro MMA Record: 15-6-0
- McKinney Knockout Wins: 7
- McKinney Submission Wins: 8
UFC St. Louis Ribovics vs. McKinney: Skillset Breakdown
“T-Wrecks” is an ideal nickname for the underdog who’ll either wreck the opposition or get wrecked early in his fights. You won’t find another fighter on the UFC roster who succeeds as well as McKinney does in the first two minutes of his fights; unfortunately, when the stoppages don’t surface, he’s one combination or bad position away from defeat.
In stark contrast, Ribovics is a calm, cool, and collected fighter with respectable poise and patience inside the octagon. He’s a technical striker who can take his time to get going, but when he’s on, he’s on!
McKinney’s takedown threat and early stoppage potential in the first two minutes exist, and the danger he presents is always good for Under bettors. However, if and when he cannot stop Ribovics, we’re almost guaranteed the Argentinian will hurt McKinney like everyone else in that same position has previously.
Under 1.5 Rounds Reasoning
I’ve already hit the Ribovics moneyline at -155, but our Punching Parlay is sipping more juice and a highly probable outcome that’s surfaced in every single McKinney pro bout since 2018 (16 fights).
The available UFC odds have labeled the over 1.5 rounds at -250, but if you know, you know. If you don’t, rewatch McKinney’s tape to see him die gas and lose inside 7 minutes or win via stoppage in the first two.
UFC Parlay Leg 1: Under 1.5 Rounds (-250) at Bovada
Jared Gooden vs. Kevin Jousset
UFC St. Louis Welterweight Bout
Gooden: The Story So Far
Following a 1-3 losing streak, Jared Gooden took an early exit from the UFC in 2021. A failed attempt at competing against the world’s best gave him a reality check. He notably fought his way back to recognition, but again, after two fights since his return, he’s 1-1 in a continued struggle to find consistency.
- Gooden Pro MMA Record: 23-9-0
- Gooden Knockout Wins: 11
- Gooden Submission Wins: 8
Jousset: The Story So Far
France’s Kevin Jousset has had a perfect beginning to his UFC tenure; after squeezing the neck of Kiefer Crosbie in his promotional debut, he returned versus a veteran in Kenan Song and outclassed the Chinaman through three rounds.
- Jousset Pro MMA Record: 10-2-0
- Jousset Knockout Wins: 4
- Jousset Submission Wins: 1
UFC St. Louis Gooden vs. Jousset: Skillset Breakdown
Gooden is tough and defensively sound as a fighter who’s suffered just one KO/TKO loss in 32 pro bouts. The problem lies in his game planning; notably, when dealing with pressure, he presents minimal offense in his defensive blueprint.
I wouldn’t expect Gooden to implement an offensive wrestling game plan, so we’ll be presented with his basic kickboxing skills. With no significant strike metrics, he’ll struggle to match the numbers Jousset puts up alone, and this doesn’t include the potential grappling the Frenchman can implement.
Jousset has a mean jab, and he’ll benefit from a speed advantage on the feet alongside a higher output of strikes. We’ve watched him mix up takedowns in the past, and after watching Carlston Harris take Gooden down with ease, I believe Jousset has good enough wrestling to take the fight to the mat if he wishes.
Jousset Moneyline Reasoning
The available UFC odds favor Jousset, and rightly so.
Is he the most technical guy on the roster? No… Does he present a serious finishing threat to Gooden? Not at all. However, with striking numbers going well into the hundreds on countless occasions and what I believe is the greater chance of success in striking and wrestling situations, he’s one of the safer juiced plays this weekend that’s idealistic for our parlay’s second leg.
UFC Parlay Leg 2: Kevin Jousset ML (-220) at Bovada
The UFC St. Louis Punching Parlay
- McKinney/Ribovics Under 1.5 Rounds (-250)
- Kevin Jousset ML (-220)
UFC Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+103) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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