UFC St. Louis First Look: Lewis vs. Nascimento Betting Picks, Odds & Predictions

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Top UFC Pick: Derrick Lewis ML (-150) [1.5u to win 1u] at Everygame (visit our Everygame Review)

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Get ready for an exhilarating return to the caged octagon as the UFC stops in Missouri this weekend. The heavyweight competitors are set to exchange leather in the evening’s main event, and we’re here to cover all your betting needs.

Trust in our expertise as we provide you with a comprehensive betting guide. This guide offers an early preview of the UFC St. Louis main event bout between Derrick Lewis and Rodrigo Nascimento. We’ve also included updated UFC odds at the top-rated sportsbooks and our free expert UFC first-look betting picks, predictions, and analysis.

UFC St. Louis Information

  • When: Saturday, May 11, 2024 – 06:00 PM ET  
  • Where: Enterprise Center, St. Louis, Missouri
  • Scheduled Bouts: 13
  • Main Event: Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento
  • Moneyline Probability: Lewis – 60% (-150) Nascimento – 41.5% (+141)

UFC St. Louis Main Event: Lewis vs. Nascimento

Derrick “The Black Beast” Lewis

Does a 39-year-old Derrick Lewis have one more title run in him? I’d say no, but with a personality adored by the masses, one-punch KO power, and his vicious nature inside the octagon, he remains a fan favorite, and despite falling out of the top-10-rankings to #12, he’s still a knockout threat to any challengers.

Four losses from Lewis’ previous five UFC bouts don’t look great, and it’s understandable why critics may doubt his potential moving forward. But as the level of competition inside the top 10 of the heavyweight division may have surpassed the Texan’s skillset, the man who owns more knockout victories than any other fighter in UFC history is the most dangerous gatekeeper pound-for-pound. 

Lewis Best ML Odds: -150 at Everygame

Rodrigo “Ze Colmeia” Nascimento

Following a three-fight win streak, Brazil’s Rodrigo Nascimento has broken into the top 15 of the heavyweight rankings and is now receiving his first-ever main event position. Fans unquestionably expected a different clash at the top of the bill this weekend, but a 4-1 UFC record and slick ground game offensive should keep viewers intrigued at Nascimento’s progression.  

We have a BJJ specialist in Nascimento taking on the power of Lewis, and in typical heavyweight division fashion, anything can happen. The question is, does the younger, up-and-coming Brazilian stand a chance versus the veteran accustomed to putting his opponents unconscious in main event positions?

Nascimento Best ML Odds: +141 at BetOnline

UFC St. Louis: Tale of the Tape

UFC St. Louis Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights  

Lewis hasn’t received much technical praise over the years; this is mainly due to the quick-ending, brutal knockouts that have built his stardom as a UFC competitor. Furthermore, a 50% striking accuracy isn’t great, but the key difference is that he only needs one to land, and it could be lights out for anyone on the receiving end.

It’s a no-brainer for Nascimento: he’ll want to utilize his primary weapon, grappling, and take advantage of Lewis’ than-desirable grappling defense. Interestingly, Lewis has surrendered twelve takedowns in his previous three fights alone, but only two of those opponents could make good use of it.

Nascimento undoubtedly owns a grappling edge, but to succeed in this contest, he must first get the fight to the ground. Lewis has been known to sprawl lesser-talented wrestlers, and the Brazilian is certainly lacking in this area.

Nascimento has been slow, plodding, and lackluster on the feet, especially following grappling scenarios. Every round starts standing, and without the wrestling chops that assisted guys like Jailton Almedia and Serghei Spivac, the underdog could soon become very susceptible to one of Lewis’ famous knockout blows. 

The UFC St. Louis Best Bet Formula

The UFC odds have placed Lewis as a slight betting favorite despite his recent trajectory heading in a negative direction. I believe this has much to do with Nascimento’s wrestling game and untrustworthy top control.

Yes, the Brazilian has won three consecutive bouts, but split decisions against Ilir Latifi and Tanner Boser saw him barely overcome low-level opposition. While Lewis is no technical mastermind or a shining example of a perfect mixed martial artist, the knockout threat will be present in all five rounds, and I don’t believe Nascimento can avoid it.

UFC Pick: Derrick Lewis ML (-150) [1.5u to win 1u] at Everygame

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.