UFC Abu Dhabi First Look: Nurmagomedov vs. Sandhagen Betting Picks, Odds & Predictions
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David Manyun
- August 1, 2024
Top UFC Pick: Over 3.5 Rounds (-195) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
In the UFC’s return to the Etihad Arena in the UAE, top contending bantamweight competitors will exchange leather in the evening’s main event, and we’re covering all your betting needs with top sportsbooks.
The undefeated cousin of Khabib, Umar Nurmagomedov, looks to continue his ascension through the 135lb rankings, but he’ll first have to get through the No.2-ranked Cory Sandhagen.
Read on for our complete betting guide with an early preview of the UFC Abu Dhabi main event clash between Nurmagomedov and Sandhagen. It includes updated UFC odds and our free expert UFC first-look betting picks, predictions, and analysis.
And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel, where our expert analyzed the Marlon Vera vs. Deiveson Figueiredo and Mackenzie Dern vs. Loopy Godinez bouts.
Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Cory Sandhagen
UFC Abu Dhabi Bantamweight Main Event Bout
UFC Abu Dhabi Information
- When: Saturday, August 3, 2024 – 12:00 PM ET
- Where: Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, UAE
- Scheduled Bouts: 13
- Main Event: Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Cory Sandhagen
- Moneyline Probability: Nurmagomedov – 75% (-300) Sandhagen – 28.2% (+255)
UFC Abu Dhabi Main Event Profiles
Umar Nurmagomedov
Living up to the hype of the Nurmagomedov name is no easy feat, especially when you have to follow in the footsteps of the former lightweight king and one of the G.O.A.T.S, Khabib. However, Cousin Umar has done just that thus far.
Behind a 12-0 professional MMA record, Umar Nurmagomedov entered the UFC bantamweight division with high expectations. Three years later, those expectations have been met with five straight wins, three of which came by submission or KO/TKO.
Sure, his rise through the 135-pound rankings has taken a few hits, including a thirteen-month absence due to injuries, but for the most part, the hype train still coasts the tracks of the shark-infested elite UFC roster, and Saturday’s main event could be his ticket to title contention.
Nurmagomedov Best Moneyline Odds: (-300) at BetOnline
Cory “The Sandman” Sandhagen
Watching Cory Sandhagen outwrestle Rob Font in his most recent bout certainly wasn’t on my bingo card. “The Sandman,” known for his emphatic kickboxing skills and striking credentials, proved he’s more than a one-trick pony, but aged 32, it’s now or never, as he puts a No.2-ranking position at risk to cement his name as the next in line for Sean O’Malley’s bantamweight championship.
Sandhagen’s current three-fight win streak includes Font, Marlon Vera, and Yadong Song. These are a trio of top-ranked fighters, but each notably succeeds via offensive striking game plans. Under the guidance of striking coach Trevor Wittman, will the perennial contender have enough to prevent a wrestling ace in Umar?
Sandhagen Best Moneyline Odds: (+255) at Bovada
UFC Abu Dhabi Main Event: Tale of the Tape
| Umar Nurmagomedov | UFC Abu Dhabi | Cory Sandhagen |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | Age | 32 |
| 5’8” | Height | 5’11” |
| 69” | Reach | 70” |
| Russia | Nationality | USA |
| Eagles MMA/AKA | Affiliation | Elevation Fight Team |
| 17 wins | Current Streak | 3 wins |
| 17-0-0 | Pro Record | 17-4-0 |
| 5-0 | UFC Record | 10-3 |
Nurmagomedov vs. Sandhagen Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights
He’s taller, more experienced, and arguably one of the cleanest strikers at 135 pounds, so why is Cory Sandhagen a significant betting underdog this weekend?
Well, aside from the Nurmagomedov name and Russian flag often having a serious pull at the sportsbooks, Umar has proved time and time again his offensive wrestling skills. At the same time, it might not be quite as polished as Khabib’s, but it is a dangerous weapon in his toolbox that most opponents struggle to handle.
Conversely, Sandhagen is no wrestling dunce, but offensively grappling the likes of Font isn’t worthy evidence when making comparisons to Umar, as the Dagestani chain-wrestling nature is an entirely different beast.
Most MMA fans don’t need to be told about Sandhagen’s striking capabilities. Yes, with the longer frame and significantly more experience at an elite level, he would definitely out-strike Umar for five rounds. Unfortunately for him, the takedowns will likely arrive early and often, and alongside a relentless pace and cardio, it isn’t easy to look beyond the Russian favorites chance of success this weekend.
Over 3.5 Rounds: The UFC Abu Dhabi Best Bet Formula
The available UFC odds have made Umar Nurmagomedov a -300 betting favorite. Although I believe he has the striking intelligence to make this a top-heavy ground game onslaught eventually, Sandhagen is being overlooked.
The first viable betting approach that springs to mind would be the over 3.5 rounds. Umar has effortlessly submitted foes in the past, and his KO over Raoni Barcelos was a thing of beauty. However, the knockout isn’t coming over Sandhagen, and “The Sandman’s” equally no slouch when it comes to transitional movement and defending submissions.
We’ll pay some slight juice but take the over 3.5 rounds. Umar will likely sail to a unanimous decision victory behind spammed takedowns and ground control, but Sandhagen’s iron chin and durability will keep him in this fight until the final bell.
UFC Pick: Over 3.5 Rounds (-195) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
