Our Top Betting Pick for UFC 295
UFC Pick: Over 1½ Rounds (-130) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
In the UFC’s long-awaited return to MSG in New York, the interim light heavyweight strap is up for grabs in the evening’s main event, and we’re covering all your betting needs.
Former middleweight champion Alex Pereira looks to bring the title back to Brazil, but he won’t have an easy night with the former 205lb champ, Jiri Prochazka, standing in his way.
Read on for our complete betting guide with a deep dive into the UFC 295 main event championship bout between Prochazka and Pereira, including updated UFC odds and our free expert UFC first look betting picks, predictions, and analysis.
UFC 295 Information
- When: Saturday, November 11, 2023 – 06:00 PM ET
- Where: Madison Square Garden, New York
- Scheduled Bouts: 13
- Main Event: Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira
- Moneyline Probability: Prochazka – 47.4% (+111) Pereira – 56.5% (-130)
UFC 295 Main Event: Prochazka vs. Pereira
Jiri “BJP” Prochazka
Jiri Prochazka quickly gained attention from Dana White & the UFC leadership, who wasted no time in signing the highly skilled martial artist back in 2019. After a successful career in other promotions, including a decade of dominance as the RIZIN light heavyweight champion, Prochazka made a memorable UFC debut in the summer of 2020 by defeating Volkan Oezdemir at Fight Island.
Prochazka’s martial arts journey began with Muay Thai training during his teenage years, eventually leading him to become a national world champion in the discipline. His transition to MMA in 2012 seemed like a natural progression.
Despite being relatively new to the UFC, Prochazka has already earned a title opportunity and won the championship in a record number of fights (3). His victories over Volkan Oezdemir, and Dominick Reyes and the memorable title win against Glover Teixeira haven’t gone unnoticed, earning him consecutive bonus awards and solidifying his position as a formidable contender.
While there may be critics questioning his rapid ascent to title contention, it’s important to note that he has already defeated two top challengers and dominantly won the title. His injury was a setback, but he’s already a proven light heavyweight titleholder, and he undoubtedly owns the skills to achieve it again.
Jiri Prochazka Combat Sports Accomplishments
- UFC Light Heavyweight Champion (One Time)
- UFC Fight of the Night (Two Times)
- UFC Performance of the Night (Two Times)
- First champion from the Czech Republic
- RIZIN Light Heavyweight Champion (Inaugural, one defense)
Prochazka Best Moneyline Odds: +110 at Bovada
Alex “Poatan” Pereira
Alex Pereira’s ambition to prove himself as the most formidable combat sports athlete led him to dethrone the former undefeated middleweight champion, Israel Adesanya, at UFC 281 last November.
Despite having only seven bouts on his record and three UFC wins at the time, Pereira gained recognition as one of the most dangerous strikers in UFC middleweight history. With his brute power and relentless forward pressure, he solidified his position at the top of the 185lb weight class, but now, a new journey awaits.
With a move up to the light heavyweight division, the question remains: can this KO artist achieve the unthinkable and claim his second UFC title in a second weight class in just his seventh appearance under the UFC banner? It would be a remarkable feat, but it is also a daring one.
Alex Pereira Combat Sports Accomplishments
- UFC Middleweight Championship
- Performance of the Night (Three times)
- Multi-time and multi-division Glory kickboxing champion
- Glory Hall of Fame Inductee (2023)
Pereira Best Moneyline Odds: -130 at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
UFC 295: Tale of the Tape
UFC 295 Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights
Watching Jiri Prochazka get dropped in all three of his UFC bouts to date is a major red flag for most, especially now that he’s faced with, arguably, the best kickboxer on the UFC roster. However, despite those moments, we’ve watched the Czech fighter display an unfathomable level of recovery and fight back to win said contests inside the distance.
While Prochazka presents one of the most unpredictable styles, we know exactly what we’re getting with Pereira. Calf kicks, power left hooks to the head and body, with a traditional kickboxing stance and style that he’s been successful with.
In contrast, will Prochazka throw a spinning elbow? A flying knee? Is this man going to reenact the showtime kick? We don’t know, which makes him incredibly difficult to prepare for. His unorthodox style is difficult to read on the feet, and his submission victory over a black belt in Teixiera is all the information we need to judge his ground abilities.
Honestly, this main event is one of the most difficult to predict; both men own power and can finish the fight. Pereira is undoubtedly the more seasoned and technical striker, but he isn’t used to the strange style of Prochazka. And for these reasons alone, I’m staying clear of the moneyline in an attempt to build our bankroll on the total.
The UFC 295 Best Bet Formula
The available UFC odds at the top sportsbooks have placed an interesting -145 line on the over 1.5 rounds.
Considering Pereira’s proven defense, Prochazka’s ability to overcome adversity, and the fact that over 1.5 rounds have landed in the previous five bouts of these men combined, it’s a wagering position I’m in full support of… especially with such a challenging straight pick presented.
UFC Pick: Over 1½ Rounds (-145) at Bookmaker [1.45u to win 1u]
UFC 295 Main Card & Odds
- Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira [UFC light heavyweight main event bout]
- Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall [UFC co-main heavyweight bout]
- Jessica Andrade vs. Mackenzie Dern [UFC women’s strawweight bout]
- Matt Frevola vs. Benoit Saint-Denis [UFC lightweight bout]
- Pat Sabatini vs. Diego Lopes [UFC featherweight bout]
UFC 295 Preliminary Card & Odds
- Steve Erceg vs. Alessandro Costa [UFC flyweight bout]
- Mateusz Rebecki vs. Roosevelt Roberts [UFC lightweight bout]
- Tabatha Ricci vs. Lupita Godinez [UFC women’s strawweight bout]
- Nazim Sadykhov vs. Viacheslav Borshchev [UFC lightweight bout]
- Jared Gordon vs. Mark Madsen [UFC lightweight bout]
- Kyung Ho Kang vs. John Castaneda [UFC bantamweight bout]
- Joshua Van vs. Kevin Borjas [UFC flyweight bout]
- Dennis Buzukja vs. Jamall Emmers [UFC featherweight bout]
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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