UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals Leg 2 Analysis

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Manchester City's striker Erling Haaland (R) celebrates with Bernardo Silva (L) after scoring their third goal during the UEFA Champions League quarter final, first leg football match against Bayern Munich on April 11, 2023. (Photo by Paul ELLIS / AFP).

Soccer Prediction: Bayern Munich 1 – Manchester City 1

Soccer Pick: Under 3.5 Goals (-167) at Everygame (visit our Everygame Review)

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The second leg of UCL quarter-final games is just around the corner, and we’re providing you with our expert analysis and soccer picks.

Champions League foes Chelsea and Real Madrid will clash in London as Manchester City takes the trip to Bayern Munich with a 3-goal lead. Continue reading for our top betting picks and free UCL predictions.

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Our Top Betting Picks for UCL Quarterfinals Leg 2

  • Chelsea vs. Real Madrid: Under 2.5 Goals (+100)
  • Bayern Munich vs. Manchester City: Under 3.5 Goals (-167)

Chelsea vs. Real Madrid Information

  • When: Tuesday, April 18 – 03:00 PM EDT
  • Where: Stamford Bridge
  • Moneyline Probability: Real Madrid 40.8% (+145) vs. Chelsea 35.7% (+180)
  • Win/Loss (Last 5, All competitions): Chelsea L/L/L/D/L – Real Madrid W/W/L/W/W

A Twenty-Year Trend to Overcome for the Blue

The last time Real Madrid squandered a 2-0 lead during a Champions League second leg was in 2004, as they lost to Monaco on away goals (4-2). This means Frank Lampard’s men must attempt to snap a twenty-year trend to place themselves in this year’s UCL semi-finals.

Unfortunately, more than historical trends are stacking up against Chelsea’s chances. This squad is 11th in the Premier League table, hasn’t won a game since early March, and the away goals factor cannot save them as they defend Stamford Bridge in the second leg.

Frank Lampard’s men did overcome Borussia Dortmund (2-0) in their previous UCL home game, but this wasn’t against the Spanish giants that have progressed in 18 of their previous 19 Champions League meetings when leading by two goals after the first leg.

Benzema on the Counterattack

Real Madrid will likely serve up a defensive game plan on Tuesday afternoon. Throwing their efforts into an attack-based style would be foolish, but we should expect Chelsea to push forward at every moment.

For this reason, the counterattack from Real will be present, and as Benzema’s last 11 Champions League goals have come against English squads, don’t be surprised if the Real front-runner gives his team the edge, albeit with a close scoreline even more defensive tactics will be deployed should the visitors take a 1-0 lead.

Under 2.5 Goals (+100): The Betting Pick Formula

The Blues are in dire form, and after losing to Brighton at the weekend, they’re now winless in six games while losing four of their last five. With that said, they rarely concede more than two goals, and at Stamford Bridge, they’ve allowed just six goals from their previous six games in all competitions.

An away win shows the excellent value at +100, but we should expect a tamed Real Madrid side that won’t want to squander a 2-0 goal lead by deploying an offensive strategy. This should lead to a tight affair focusing on defense in the Spaniards – who’d be happy to leave London with a 0-0 draw.

Soccer Prediction: Chelsea 0 – Real Madrid 1

Soccer Pick: Under 2.5 Goals (+100) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Best Bet Supporting Trends

  • Under 2.5 goals has landed in 4 of Chelsea’s last 6 UCL games.
  • Under 2.5 goals has landed in Real Madrid’s previous 2 UCL games.
  • Chelsea has allowed just 6 goals from their previous 6 home games in all competitions.
  • Chelsea is winless in six consecutive games in all competitions.
  • Chelsea has won just 1 of their last 8 meetings with Real Madrid.

Bayern Munich vs. Manchester City Information

  • When: Wednesday, April 19 – 03:00 PM EDT
  • Where: Allianz Arena
  • Moneyline Probability: Manchester City 40.8% (+145) vs. Bayern Munich 37.3% (+168)
  • Win/Loss (Last 5, All competitions): Bayern Munich D/L/W/L/W – Manchester City W/W/W/W/W

Solid Home Form in Munich

The dismissal of Julian Nagelsmann hasn’t been vindicated, as Thomas Tuchel has only achieved success in just two of five games as Munich’s manager thus far. This squad also holds just one clean sheet since the arrival of Tuchel, a statistic that should be a huge concern as Erling Haaland hops on the plane to visit some former rivals from his days as a Dortmund star.

However, finding the net has never been an issue for Munich when competing at the Allianz. The last time they failed to score on home turf in a competitive fixture was in 2020, so we should expect at least one from the German champions this Wednesday as they attempt to recover a 3-goal deficit.

Manchester City’s Away Form Must Improve

Pep Guardiola’s quest for a trio of trophies continues as his Scandinavian superstar Haaland is heavily assisting his boss with a masterful end-of-season scoring/winning streak.

Manchester City travels to the Allianz on the back of a 10-game win streak in all competitions – unbeaten in their last 14 – and they’ve scored at least three goals in all their previous six meetings. They’ve shortened the EPL table gap between themselves and Arsenal to four points, are in the FA Cup semi-finals, and will enter a Champions League second-leg meeting with Bayern owning a 3-goal lead.

That said, UCL away form has been a concern for the Citizens this term. They failed to win any of their group stage road trips against Dortmund, Copenhagen, and RB Leipzig – drawing all three. Even still, a stalemate would be fine here, and we could see Guardiola put up the brick wall in defense to ensure his team’s survival.

Under 3.5 Goals: The Betting Pick Formula

The Champions League odds have placed Manchester City as the slight betting favorite, but both sides present plus money. Given City’s away form and Munich’s history of rarely failing to score at least one goal at home, the moneyline market is somewhat of a coin toss.

When dealing with two high-scoring teams, we can receive excellent betting value on the under 3.5 goals. Munich has seen over 3.5 goals in just 2 of their previous 9 games in all competitions, while their midweek visitors have scored just 1 goal from their last 3 UCL road trips.

Soccer Prediction: Bayern Munich 1 – Manchester City 1

Soccer Pick: Under 3.5 Goals (-167) at Everygame

Best Bet Supporting Trends

  • Under 3.5 has landed in all of Manchester City’s UCL away fixtures this term.
  • Bayern Munich has seen under 3.5 goals in 7 of their last 9 games in all competitions.

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.