In the aftermath of posting a $175 million bond on Monday night, a look at the 2024 US elections odds suggests that the issue has had little impact as former President Donald Trump continues to lead incumbent President Joe Biden, according to oddsmakers at the top rated sportsbooks.
This move by Trump and his team is instrumental for the former President to continue his quest for the White House in November as it prevents New York Attorney General Tish James from freezing his assets while the process plays out in an appeals court, something that could take months or even years.
Currently, Trump is an odds-on favorite, according to political handicappers. This means he has an implied win probability of more than 50%. His odds currently sit anywhere between -104 and -115 and partner shops.
For the past year, Trump has been considered the favorite. During that span, his odds have gone from +150 to where they’re currently at. However, and unrelated to Trump’s legal issues, Biden has seen his stock improve by almost a full dollar.
Just a couple of months ago the presumed Democratic candidate was priced +200 or higher. Since then, his odds have improved to anywhere between +105 and +130.
Trump’s Bonds
On the evening of April 1st, the former President posted a $175 million bond in his New York civil fraud case. The move came two weeks after Justice Arthur Engoron issued him a $354.8 million penalty after concluding that the former President orchestrated business fraud by falsely inflating his net worth in order to obtain better rates from banks and insurance companies.
Originally, the amount of the bond was $454 million. However, a New York appeals court adjusted that amount to $175 million, on March 25th.
According to sources, Trump was able to secure the bond through Knight Specialty Insurance Company, a California-based company. The chairman, Don Hankey, informed that Trump’s collateral to secure the loan was a combination of cash and investment-grade bonds.
This is the second bond that Trump has had to secure this year after having to post $91.6 million in his civil defamation case with writer E. Jean Carroll.
Busy Month
While Trump’s odds have been able to withstand his different legal battles, there is no doubt that April could be a turning point for those looking for value with Biden. On the other hand, for Trump backers, it could be wise to wait and see how some events play out as April will be a busy month for him.
On April 15th begins a criminal trial in New York, in which he is accused of falsifying business records to cover up a hush-money payment to porn star Stormy Daniels. Currently, this is the only one of his four criminal cases that will begin before Election Day, on November 5th.
One day later, in an unrelated case, the Supreme Court will hold a hearing regarding a man involved in the January 6th, 2021 events. However, this could be significant for the former President. One of the things that will be considered is if this person can be charged with “obstructing an official proceeding.”
The implication for Trump is that this is one of the charges he’s currently facing in the federal criminal case accusing him of illegally trying to reverse his 2202 election loss.
Finally, on April 25th, the Supreme Court will hold another hearing. This time they will consider his claim that he can’t be prosecuted for actions he took as president. While the SCOTUS will likely reject this argument, according to law experts, the situation does delay the federal election-subversion case until after the elections.
Odds Movement
As for Biden, despite the backlash he has received for his support of Israel, it seems that the momentum he has earned since his State of the Union address is starting to build up as the incumbent President has seen his odds go from +200 or higher, all the way down to +105 to +130.
The improvement of his odds could also be because, as the Democratic National Convention, it is clear that Biden’s age or memory won’t be an issue and he will be the Democratic candidate in November. This has taken a toll on the odds of other potential candidates in the Democratic Party.
Despite officially endorsing Biden, both Gavin Newsom and Michelle Obama saw their odds improve, as there were concerns about Biden’s health. However, after Super Tuesday both dropped. according to oddsmakers.
Finally, the new candidate on the block, Rober F. Kennedy Jr. managed to steal some headlines last week after announcing lawyer and tech entrepreneur Nicole Shanahan as his running mate.
While his odds have actually shortened since the announcement (moving from +2500 to +3300), the move could boost his support in the short term as this allows him to gain access to more ballots. Nearly half of the states require a mandatory VP nomination to participate.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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